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Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Betting Prediction and Best Odds September 13

Ty France of Mariners Hits Baseball for a NRFI

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick: The Preview

WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres clash at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners have defeated the Padres in both matchups these two have played so far this season.

Tuesday, September 13 MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars
Moneyline: Seattle Mariners -108 vs San Diego Padres -102
Runline: Mariners -1.5 (+180) / Padres +1.5 (-210)
Total: 7.5 Runs (Over -100 / Under -120)
Game Time: 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT
Where: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA
Weather: Retractable Roof

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Analysis

The Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres in the first of a quick two game set. The M’s took two of three from the World Champion Braves, and the Friars dropped two of three at home to the Dodgers.

It’s a good battle of right-handers as Yu Darvish goes against Logan Gilbert, first pitch at T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 PM EDT / 6:40 PM PDT.

San Diego isn’t playing great baseball as of late (just 5-5 in their last 10 games), but they’ve still managed to stay 2.0 games ahead of Milwaukee for the final wild card berth.

Seattle has come on strong since early June going 7-3 over their last 10, and they’re tied with Toronto for the first two wild card spots. The Mariners are 0.5 game ahead of Tampa Bay for the third wild card berth, and 6.0 games ahead of Baltimore.

Didn’t The Padres Make a Trade?

Yu Darvish is a big reason why the Padres are in the playoff race in 2022. He’s had a really good season, going 13-7 in 26 starts and 168.2 innings, with a 3.31 ERA and a stellar 0.98 WHIP.

The veteran right-hander is still pitching well with 168 Ks, and has only allowed 34 walks and 20 home runs. It looks like he still has plenty of gas left in the tank, and should return to the Padres starting rotation in 2023.

The trade for Juan Soto and Josh Bell was supposed to give the Friars’ offense a boost, but it hasn’t been as much as expected. Bell is hitting .333 with an .844 OPS in his last 7 games, and a .273 average plus .730 OPS in his last 15.

Soto has hit a paltry 118 and .462 OPS in his last 15 games, and a .206 average plus .686 OPS in his last 30 games. The Padres will need Soto and Bell to hit well in the postseason to have a puncher’s chance to advance. If they can’t, I don’t like their chances of getting past the first round.

Gilbert Getting It Done For Mariners

Starter Logan Gilbert is in good current form after two bad starts versus the Yankees in early August. He’s had quality starts in four of his last five outings, striking out 29 and giving up just five walks and no home runs. His season-long numbers are also solid with a 12-5 record, 3.23 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

The acquisition of Luis Castillo from the Reds has shored up their starting pitching staff, and made them playoff-ready. With Robbie Ray, Gilbert and Castillo, that’s a formidable trio of starters that can help them compete in five and seven-game playoff series.

And the emergence of rookie outfielder Julio Rodriguez has also sparked the Mariners in 2022. With a great combination of power at the plate and speed in the outfield, his statistics and style of play has had some baseball analysts comparing him to Ken Griffey Jr. That’s high praise, and time will tell how his career compares to “The Kid.” But he’s playing really good baseball year-to-date.

Logan Gilbert has the starting pitching edge over Yu Darvish, as he’s in better recent form. While he has a higher ERA in his last seven games, Gilbert hasn’t given up a home run in his last five outings, while Darvish has allowed nine bombs in his last seven starts – three of them in his last game versus Arizona in Petco Park. That’s not good against a Seattle club that’s 10th in home runs.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Padres look like a team that’s hanging on for the #3 wild card berth, and the Mariners seem to be peaking heading down the regular season stretch.

If this was the regular season, I’d be a little worried about overconfidence after beating the Braves two out of three, but since they’re in a dogfight with the Blue Jays and Rays to land the first wild card spot – and get home field advantage in the opening round – I don’t see this club getting “fat and sassy.” That’s why I like Seattle on the moneyline.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners Moneyline

First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Tuesday, September 13

Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.

MLB Picks, Predictions and Odds | Daily MLB Betting Preview | First Pitch for Sept 13

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalkโ€™s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Tuesday’s baseball games, including this Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres showdown, from your desktop or phone.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres


Meet the Author

Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.

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