Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Betting Odds August 25
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Thursday’s Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians clash at T-Mobile Park. This game will be the first time the Mariners and Guardians play against each other this season.
| Thursday, August 25 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Seattle Mariners +100 vs Cleveland Guardians -110 |
| Runline: | Mariners -1.5 (-170) / Guardians +1.5 (+150) |
| Total: | 8 Runs (Over -105 / Under -115) |
| Game Time: | 4:10pm ET / 1:10pm PT |
| Where: | T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA |
| Weather: | Retractable Roof |
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Analysis
The Seattle Mariners host the Cleveland Guardians Thursday afternoon in the first of a four game series. The Mariners split a two game set at home with the Nationals, while Cleveland took two from the Padres in San Diego. Triston McKenzie gets the start against Marco Gonazles, first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park.
Both teams are in the playoff hunt as Cleveland has the #3 seed as the AL Central Division leader, and the M’s have the 3rd and final wild card berth.
They still have other teams close behind them, as the Guardians have just a 4.0 game lead over Minnesota for the division lead; and Seattle has three other teams within 4.0 games of them for the wild card spot.
Guardians Increasing Lead in AL Central
When you look at the Guardians’ season long stats, it’s a bit of a mystery how they’re in the playoff hunt. They’re an average hitting and pitching team in terms of OPS and ERA (16th in each category), and are second to last in home runs.
However, they’re 9th best in team batting average, 5th in stolen bases, and 7th in OPS against left-handed pitching. I realize we’re in the long-ball era of baseball and stolen bases are an often overlooked category.
When a team can take an extra base or two and manufacture runs, I like their chances. It’s a more aggressive brand of baseball that puts pressure on the other team, and remember these wise words: “Speed never has a slump.”
Triston McKenzie has been one of Cleveland’s best starting pitchers this year, with almost identical numbers to Shane Bieber. The third-year right-hander has started 22 games and gone 141.2 innings with a 9-9 record, a 3.11 ERA and an outstanding 0.98 WHIP.
McKenzie averages almost 7.0 innings per start, and has allowed 35 walks and 20 home runs on the season – that’s 2.2 free passes and almost 1.3 home runs per nine innings, both ratios are fine for a major league starter.
Seattle Pitching is Stellar
The Mariners have been an up-and-down hitting team this season, and the last eight games have been a good example. In four games from August 15-19 the M’s scored a combined 35 runs; and in their next four games from August 20-24 they plated 11 runs.
Pitching has been Seattle’s calling card this season, as they have the 7th best staff and 9th best bullpen ERA in baseball. The Mariners are 18th in team OPS for the season, and 23rd in OPS versus right-handed pitching the last 30 days.
Marco Gonzales has had an average season for Seattle in 2022. In 24 starts and 134.2 innings, he’s posted an 8-12 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The veteran left-hander only has 75 strikeouts, which comes to five Ks per nine innings – that’s below what you want to see from a major league starter.
He’s a pitch-to-contact guy who tries to avoid as much hard contact as possible. But his advanced stats on Baseball Savant aren’t good, as he has eight categories where he’s in the bottom 22nd percentile or lower.
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
McKenzie is in much better current form than Gonzales, Cleveland hits southpaws much better than Seattle hits righties, and the bullpens are pretty even as they’re both in the top 10 for ERA. This is why I’ll take the visitors on the 1st 5 innings moneyline, and sprinkle a little on the 1st 5 run line.
Prediction: Cleveland Guardians 1st 5 Innings Moneyline
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First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, August 25
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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