Pirates vs Astros Prediction and Betting Preview | June 5
A good pitching matchup is expected in Thursday’s Pirates vs Astros rubber match in Pittsburgh between Framber Valdez and Mitch Keller. The GoldSheet team offers its thoughts on tonight’s interleague clash at PNC Park.
Pirates vs Astros Betting Preview
| Time | 6:40pm ET / 3:40pm PT |
| Stadium | PNC Park in Pittsburgh |
| Weather | Warm and Humid with a Chance of Showers |
| MoneyLine | Houston -155 / Pittsburgh +140 |
| Total | 7.5 Runs (o -115 / u -105) |
| RunLine | Houston -1.5 (+105) / Pittsburgh +1.5 (-125) |
Houston Astros
Framber Valdez is coming off a very impressive outing against the Rays where he allowed one run on three hits and one walk in a complete-game effort. It’s a small sample size, but Valdez does have a history of struggling after a lengthy start.
Earlier this season, he threw 8.0 innings against the Royals then followed that up with a dud against the White Sox, allowing four runs on seven hits in 5.0 innings. Coincidentally, he went 8.0 innings again in May while facing the Royals then followed that up with a mediocre performance against the Rangers.
Last year, he threw a complete game against the Angels then followed that up by allowing five runs on eight hits in 4.0 innings against the Giants. In 2023, he threw a complete game against the Guardians then allowed six runs on eight hits in his next start against the Orioles. There’s a little bit of a pattern there, wouldn’t ya say?
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ lineup has taken a lot of heat, particularly because of the lack of run support they have given Paul Skenes when he is on the mound. But Pittsburgh has had a top-10 offense over the last two weeks. Since May 22, the Pirates are hitting .263 (No. 7 in MLB) with a .332 on-base percentage (No. 7) while scoring an average of 4.25 runs per game.
Mitch Keller continues to put the Pirates in position to win when he is on the mound. He has only allowed one home run in his last five starts. He has issued a total of four walks with 21 strikeouts in his last 25.0 innings pitched. His 4.03 expected ERA is the lowest he’s had since 2019.
Pirates vs Astros Prediction
The Astros have enough cracks to have us looking at the home ‘dog on Thursday. Pittsburgh tagged Valdez for four runs in 6.0 innings last year. His road ERA (4.14) is nearly two runs higher than his home ERA (2.20) this season. His expected weighted on-base average (.317) in over 40 points higher than his actual weighted on-base average (.276). His expected ERA (.377) is over a half-run higher than his actual ERA (3.12).
PITTSBURGH PIRATES +140 ML
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