Mets vs Nationals Prediction and Betting Preview | June 10
Citi Field tends to be a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but hitting conditions should be favorable for Tuesday’s Mets vs Nationals contest. The GoldSheet team offers its thoughts on tonight’s NL East clash, which may feature more runs than the oddsmakers are projecting.
Mets vs Nationals Betting Preview
| Time | 7:10pm ET / 4:10pm PT |
| Stadium | Citi Field in Queens, New York |
| Weather | Warm and Clear with a Light Breeze Blowing to Right-Center |
| MoneyLine | New York -150 / Washington +135 |
| Total | 7.5 Runs (o -120 / u EV) |
| RunLine | New York -1.5 (+135) / Washington +1.5 (-160) |
Washington Nationals
Washington’s MacKenzie Gore has been a boom-or-bust pitcher this season with one of the league’s best strikeout rates, but one of the worst hard-hit profiles. Gore brings a 35.5-percent strikeout rate to Citi Field on Tuesday, but when he is not generating strikeouts, the ball tends to get hit very hard.
Gore enters Tuesday in the bottom-25th percentile among pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His hard-hit rate has jumped from 38.1-percent last year to 45.3-percent this year and his average exit velocity has jumped from 88.0 mph to 90.7 mph.
New York Mets
The Mets’ lineup has the sixth-best strikeout rate against left-hand pitching this season, and they have enjoyed success against Gore in the past. In three meetings last season, Gore had 14 strikeouts and eight walks. The Mets finished those three games with seven, eight and nine runs respectively.
New York is hitting .246 against lefties (No. 10 in MLB) with a .333 on-base percentage (No. 5) and a 110 wRC+ (No. 8). The Mets’ role players have hit the ball really well against Gore in the past, with Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte going a combined 15-for-32 (.469) in 35 plate appearances against him.
Mets vs Nationals Prediction
Hitting conditions should be good at Citi Field tonight with warm temperatures and a light breeze blowing out to right-center.
Even if Gore throws a gem, this game has the potential to go off the rails in the latter innings. Washington’s bullpen has a 5.81 ERA (No. 29 in MLB) with a .270 batting average allowed (No. 28) and a .372 on-base percentage allowed (last).
In the same vein, the Mets’ bullpen is struggling to get left-hand batters out because Danny Young, AJ Minter and Drew Smith and Brooks Raley are all on the IL. Since May 1, left-hand hitters have a .357 on-base percentage against the Mets’ bullpen (fourth-highest mark in baseball). Most of the Nationals’ top bats are lefties, with CJ Abrams, James Wood and Luis Garcia Jr. all batting from the left side at the top of the order.
OVER 7.5 RUNS (-120)
Daily MLB Stat Sheet
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WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, runlines, totals and betting percentages for every MLB game this summer, including tonight’s Mets vs Nationals contest. Find free MLB picks every day through out the season on our free picks pages.
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