Live Longshot to Win The 2025 Kentucky Derby – Betting Preview
2025 Kentucky Derby Longshots and Picks for the 151st Race!
Marco D’Angelo, WagerTalk’s local horse expert, shares his live long shots to bet on for the Kentucky Derby, making Kentucky Derby 2025 Picks and Predictions!
In this year’s Kentucky Derby, the buzz surrounding a longshot contender is gaining traction, especially among seasoned handicappers. Marco D’Angelo offers a compelling betting preview highlighting the value and strategic considerations bettors should not overlook.
For fans of Kentucky Derby longshot winners, this segment breaks down three major focal points: an underdog with promising potential, the race dynamics shaped by post positions, and a high-caliber horse who might not make it to the starting gate.
Underrated Contender: Publisher at 30-to-1
Marco D’Angelo’s pick for a Kentucky Derby longshot is horse number 13, Publisher, listed at 30-to-1 on the morning line.
Despite not yet winning a race, Publisher has demonstrated remarkable consistency, placing second or third in five of his seven career starts.
Importantly, Publisher is a closer—a horse that performs strongest at the end of the race. Given expectations of a fast early pace, this could play directly into his strength.
Historical trends in the Kentucky Derby have shown that such chaotic early speed often sets the stage for a longshot closer to steal the win in the final stretch.
Comparative Value: Sandman vs. Publisher
Another layer of analysis compares Publisher to a more favored horse, Sandman, who is priced at 6-to-1.
Both horses competed in the same prep race, with Sandman edging out a win while Publisher was seen closing in strong toward the end.
D’Angelo points out that Publisher’s recent speed figures—81, 86, and 95—are steadily improving. If Publisher makes another leap in performance, his odds offer incredible value compared to Sandman.
2025 Kentucky Derby Post Position and Race Dynamics
Post positions can dramatically shape the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. This year, there are four true speed horses:
- #1 Citizen Bull
- #2 Neoquist
- #12 East Avenue
- #20 Owen Almighty
Citizen Bull and Neoquist are drawn on the inside, which forces them to accelerate aggressively to avoid getting boxed in by the massive 20-horse field.
East Avenue starts from the center and is perfectly positioned to challenge for the lead. Owen Almighty, on the far outside, must also charge ahead quickly.
This setup will likely lead to fast fractions early, making it difficult for front-runners to conserve energy. When multiple speed horses clash upfront, it often results in a meltdown scenario, which creates perfect conditions for late closers like Publisher.
The Enigma: Will Baeza Race?
D’Angelo highlights a potential game-changer: Baeza, horse number 21 and is in the field after being the first also-eligible entrant.
It’s been determined this elite contender will race as Baeza recently finished second in the Santa Anita Derby against the likely Kentucky Derby favorite, Journalism.
2025 Kentucky Derby Key Takeaways for Bettors
- Publisher is the prime Kentucky Derby longshot winner candidate, offering huge value at 30-to-1 odds.
- Historical pacing patterns suggest the 2025 Kentucky Derby will feature fast early fractions, favoring closers.
- Post position analysis points to a chaotic race setup, where underdogs can capitalize.
- Keep an eye on Baeza—he’s a major player entering the race determined on Friday.
Kentucky Derby EXPERT PICKS:
Going to Bet the Kentucky Derby? Ride along with WagerTalk’s Horse Racing Expert Marco D’Angelo. Check out Marco’s full video playlist of Kentucky Derby previews here.
BUY MARCO’s PICKS! Marco actually Owns, Breeds and Races horses and has done so since 1986. So when Marco shares his selections you are getting information from someone that knows the sport from the Inside.
