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Fortinet Championship Predictions, Free Picks and Odds Sept 14-17

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Fortinet Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Fortinet Championship teeing off from Silverado Resort and Spa North Course in Napa Valley, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Fortinet Championship starting September 14!

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Fortinet ChampionshipPGA Tour Betting Notes
When:September 14-17
Where:Silverado Resort and Spa North Course in Napa Valley, CA
Defending Champ:Max Homa
Current Favorite:Max Homa (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:Golf Channel

Fortinet Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

Fortinet Championship Prediction Data

The Course & Field – Silverado Resort North Course (Napa California)

From Nick Borrman:

Finally, we are back to talk golf! OK, I joke of course as it’s only been just over two weeks since the FedexCup Playoffs wrapped up at the TOUR Championship. Perhaps golf should have a longer offseason, but I certainly don’t mind as it just means we are back in action trying to find golf winners!

The North Course at Silverado Resort is a par-72 that plays just a little over 7,100 yards, which is short for PGA Tour standards.

Players will be hitting plenty of short irons and wedges into greens this week as more than 50% of approaches are likely to come from 125 yards or less.

The course features tree-lined fairways, several deep bunkers and a few instances of water crossing the hole. Greens have plenty of undulation so finding the right quadrant is vital to have realistic birdie chances.

The field is weak with only Max Homa ranking inside the Top-20 and with the Fedex Cup Fall tournaments now a part of the calendar season, those that did not qualify for the playoffs will be fully focused on this stretch, as they must finish inside the Top-125 to retain their card for the 2024 season.

It also provides a chance to qualify for next season’s signature events. Points earned in 2023 will rollover into the fall season and continue to accumulate with points resetting at the Sentry in January.

That’s an angle I’ll be watching closely to see how it affects those on the Top-125 bubble week-in and week-out, especially when it comes to finish position betting.

But back to the matter at hand, this week’s winning player profile will have to be strong with their wedges and be able to make plenty of birdies. The winning score is likely to be in the mid-teens under par.

The course has been re-routed this year with holes 8-17 now in a different order than year’s past, though that is unlikely to make a major impact on those comfortable at this venue.

Weather looks fantastic as all four days look identical. Partly cloudy, highs in the low 80s, winds hovering around 10 mph and no rain in sight.

I’ll end with this, Homa is the deserving favorite as the two-time defending champion, plus we know how well he plays in California, but he is attempting to do what nobody has done since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic back from 2009 to 2011.

If he wins, he wins, but that’s a lot of history going against Homa to want to back his +750 price tag, so I’ll look to start elsewhere this week.

Fortinet Championship Outright Winner

Eric Cole +3500 (DraftKings)

Cole is the likely the 2022-23 PGA Tour rookie of the year and although he has yet to taste victory, it’s only a matter of time before he does. Cole made ten straight cuts to finish the season making it all the way to the BMW Championship.

His skillset fits the profile of who is likely to contend this week. Since the Houston Open last November, Cole has lost strokes on Approach just three times in 27 starts with his worst performance losing just -0.21 strokes. He ranks 11th in proximity on approaches from 100-125 yards which I already mentioned the players are likely to see plenty of this week.

Cole has also been great with the putter, gaining strokes in eight of his final ten starts, while ranking 12th in SG Putting on the season and 3rd in putting average per green in regulation.

In this field, you can consider him elite as he ranks 2nd in Total SG over the last three months and six months behind only tournament favorite, Max Homa. Don’t miss your chance at cashing in on his first TOUR win this week.

Fortinet Championship Finish Position Prediction

Akshay Bhatia Top-10 +450 | Top-20 +210 (Bet365)

Bhatia secured his 2024 card already thanks to breaking through with a win at the Barracuda Championship so he doesn’t have the pressure to perform this fall like some of the other players do and I think that can help him.

Bhatia is an aggressive iron player which can set him up for a ton of birdie looks, or of course see him slamming the trunk on Friday, but I like his chances in this weaker field.

Besides his win at the Barracuda, he finished T9 at the Barbasol, solo 4th at the Mexico Open, T24 in Puntacana and runner-up in Puerto Rico, so he seems to thrive in this type of field.

He also has some history at Silverado.  He didn’t play here last year but finished T9 in 2021 so he should have plenty of confidence heading into this week.

BMW PGA Championship (DP World Tour)

Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800

Totally understandable to want to back the likes of Hovland or Rory this week, but at their current price around 7-1, it’s just a little too short in this field which is actually pretty strong. Instead, Fitzy looks like a good option.

Fitzpatrick struggled early this past season as he battled a neck injury but he found his form beginning at the Masters where he finished T10. He followed that up with a win at the RBC Heritage and had four more Top-20 finishes over his next six starts.

However, he ended the year even stronger with three Top-10 finishes including two near wins at the BMW Championship and just two weeks ago at the Omega European Masters finishing T2 and T3, respectively.

Fitzpatrick has played here at Wentworth each of the last seven years and while he has yet to win, he has made the cut in all seven starts including two Top-10s.

See you back in two weeks for the Ryder Cup!

2023 Fortinet Championship Picks, Predictions and Odds | PGA Tour Free Plays | WT Extra 9/12

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