Washington vs USC Picks, Predictions and Best Bets
Should you take the points with Washington against USC this week? The Trojans are laying 9.5 points despite a defense that has allowed more than 35 points per game over the last three weeks, a 4-12 record against the spread over their last 16 games and a key linebacker suspended after a late hit against Oregon.
Washington has its own concerns after a home loss to Minnesota, but Lincoln Riley is 0-6 straight up at USC against Oregon, Washington and Penn State. This Washington vs USC prediction breaks down the line movement, the key matchups, the betting trends and our best bets on the spread and total. For more expert handicapping every week, check out our latest college football picks.
Washington vs USC Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Washington +9.5 (-102)
- Total Pick: Over 58.5 (-112)
- Projected Final Score: USC 34, Washington 28
- Key Trend: USC is 4-12 ATS over its last 16 games
- Key Absence: USC linebacker Desman Stephens II is suspended
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Washington | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-102) | -9.5 (-118) |
| Total | Over 58.5 (-112) | Under 58.5 (-108) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Washington | USC | Public ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/30 | +9.5 (-102) | -9.5 (-118) | USC 74% |
| 09/28 | +9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-115) | WASH 93% |
| 09/28 | +9.5 (-110) | -9.5 (-110) | WASH 94% |
| 09/28 | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) | WASH 95% |
| 09/28 | +9.5 (-110) | -9.5 (-110) | USC 93% |
| 09/28 | +8.5 (-108) | -8.5 (-112) | USC 93% |
| 09/28 | +9.5 (-110) | -9.5 (-110) | USC 93% |
| 09/28 | +9.5 (-108) | -9.5 (-112) | USC 93% |
| 09/28 | +10 (-115) | -10 (-105) | USC 93% |
| 09/27 | +10 (-112) | -10 (-108) | USC 93% |
| 09/27 | +9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-115) | USC 93% |
| 09/27 | +9.5 (-110) | -9.5 (-110) | USC 92% |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/29 | 58.5 (-112) | 58.5 (-108) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/29 | 58.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/29 | 57.5 (-115) | 57.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/28 | 57.5 (-110) | 57.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/28 | 57.5 (-115) | 57.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/28 | 57.5 (-110) | 57.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/28 | 57.5 (-115) | 57.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/28 | 57.5 (-110) | 57.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/28 | 57.5 (-115) | 57.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/28 | 57.5 (-108) | 57.5 (-112) | N/A |
| 09/28 | 56.5 (-112) | 56.5 (-108) | N/A |
| 09/27 | 56.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-112) | N/A |
| 09/27 | 55.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | N/A |
| 09/27 | 55.5 (-102) | 55.5 (-118) | N/A |
| 09/27 | 55.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | N/A |
Washington vs USC Key Matchups and Game Preview
This game features two programs under scrutiny for different reasons. USC continues to fall short in big games while its defense gives up points in bunches, and Washington is trying to answer questions about its offense and its quarterback after an unexpected home loss. The key handicapping question is whether this version of the Huskies belongs in the group of heavy hitters that have beaten USC regularly in recent years. Even if Washington is not quite at that level, laying nearly double digits with this USC defense is a difficult proposition.
USC Pressure Mounting on Lincoln Riley
The pressure is rising at USC for Lincoln Riley. The program has spared no expense, providing a new football facility, a hefty NIL budget and a football general manager in Chad Bowden, who was hired away from Notre Dame last year. Yet the results look like more of the same, with the Trojans falling short in big games again, most recently last week against Oregon. Riley now works under a new athletic director, Jen Cohen, who has been publicly supportive, and a new school president. With a buyout approaching nine figures written into his contract, the panic meter is running high around Jefferson and Figueroa, and some Trojan backers are quietly hoping Riley moves on to another job.
USC Defense Under Gary Patterson
Bringing defensive coordinator Gary Patterson out of retirement was supposed to fix USC’s defensive problems. Instead, the Trojans have been unable to slow Louisiana, Rutgers or Oregon over the past three weeks, allowing more than 35 points per game. Oregon did that damage with backup quarterback Dylan Raiola under center. The defense wilting in big moments has been a recurring theme for Riley, going back to his time at Oklahoma, and it is the biggest reason to fade USC as a large favorite.
Washington Missing Jonah Coleman
Early evidence in September suggested this is not the same Washington team as last season. The punishing ground game led by running back Jonah Coleman, now with the NFL’s Broncos, has been missed. Without that physical rushing attack, the Huskies have had a harder time controlling games and wearing down opponents, which puts more pressure on the passing game to produce.
Washington QB Demond Williams Questions
There have been various reports from the Northwest that quarterback Demond Williams may have lost some connection with his teammates after flirting with LSU in the transfer portal last winter, and that his focus may be more on next April’s NFL Draft than the current season. Even so, Williams can still be a dynamic playmaker. Against a USC defense that has been giving up big numbers, his ability to create plays could be the difference in keeping this game within the number.
Huskies Loss to Minnesota
Last Saturday’s 27-24 home loss to PJ Fleck’s Minnesota is the latest indicator that something is off in Seattle this season. It was a game Washington was expected to win, and the result has damaged confidence in the Huskies. However, a three-point loss is not a blowout, and Washington remained competitive throughout. That kind of competitiveness is what a 9.5-point underdog needs.
USC Struggles Against Top Contenders
Washington is one of the contenders Riley has yet to beat while at USC. The Trojans are now 0-6 straight up under Riley against Oregon, Washington and next week’s opponent, Penn State. USC’s inability to win these marquee games is a pattern, not an anomaly. When the Trojans step up in class, their defense has repeatedly failed to hold up.
WASH Has Riley’s Number
Two years ago, Jedd Fisch outmaneuvered Riley with what was a decidedly average first Washington team. That result is a reminder that the Huskies do not need to be elite to beat USC. They simply need to exploit the Trojans’ defensive weaknesses, and this USC defense has offered plenty to exploit.
Betting Trends: WASH vs USC
The spread has bounced between 8.5 and 10 throughout the week, with money shifting sides several times. The total has climbed steadily with the public fully on the over.
WASH Spread Trends
- USC opened at -9.5, moved as high as -10 and as low as -8.5, and currently sits at -9.5 (-118).
- Early money heavily favored USC at 92% to 93% before shifting to Washington at 93% to 95% on September 28.
- The latest update shows 74% of the money back on USC.
- USC is 4-12 ATS over its last 16 games dating back to early last season.
- Lincoln Riley is 0-6 straight up at USC against Oregon, Washington and Penn State.
WASH vs USC Total Trends
- The total opened at 55.5 and has climbed three full points to 58.5.
- The over has drawn 100% of the money and 100% of tickets at every reported update.
- USC has allowed more than 35 points per game over its last three games.
- Washington scored 24 points in its loss to Minnesota.
- Demond Williams remains capable of dynamic plays against a struggling USC defense.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: WASH vs USC
USC Suspension and Things To Know
- Desman Stephens II (LB): Suspended for this game after a late hit on Oregon QB Dante Moore
- USC has allowed more than 35 points per game over the past three weeks.
- The Trojans failed to slow Louisiana, Rutgers or Oregon.
- USC is 4-12 ATS over its last 16 games.
- USC faces Penn State next week.
Washington Things To Know
- Washington lost 27-24 at home to Minnesota last week.
- The Huskies are without the rushing production of Jonah Coleman, now with the NFL’s Broncos.
- There are reports questioning Demond Williams’ connection with teammates after his portal flirtation with LSU.
- Williams remains a dynamic playmaker.
- Washington beat USC under Jedd Fisch two years ago.
Washington vs USC Side and Over/Under Picks
Huskies +9.5 Spread Pick
Washington has real flaws, but USC is not in a position to lay nearly double digits. The Trojans’ defense has allowed more than 35 points per game over the last three weeks, they are 4-12 ATS over their last 16 games and they are without suspended linebacker Desman Stephens II. Riley has yet to beat Washington at USC, and Williams has the playmaking ability to keep the Huskies within striking distance. We are taking the points.
- Pick: Washington +9.5 (-102)
WASH vs USC Over Pick
USC’s defense has been giving up points at an alarming rate, and the suspension of Stephens weakens it further. Washington’s offense has enough playmaking ability with Williams to take advantage, while USC’s offense should be able to move the ball against a Huskies team that struggled with Minnesota. The total has climbed from 55.5 to 58.5, but both defenses give this game a strong chance to clear the number.
- Pick: Over 58.5 (-112)
Washington vs USC Final Score Prediction
Expect a back-and-forth shootout in which neither defense can get many stops. USC’s talent and home field may be enough to earn the win, but the Trojans’ defensive issues should allow Washington to stay close throughout and cover comfortably.
- Projected Final Score: USC 34, Washington 28
- Spread: Washington +9.5 (-102) covers
- Total: Over 58.5 (-112) cashes with 62 combined points
Why Washington Covers
- USC has allowed more than 35 points per game over its last three games.
- The Trojans are 4-12 ATS over their last 16 games.
- USC linebacker Desman Stephens II is suspended.
- Lincoln Riley is 0-6 straight up at USC against Oregon, Washington and Penn State.
What USC Needs to Cover
- A dramatically improved defensive performance under Gary Patterson.
- Win a marquee game against a contender for the first time under Riley.
- Take advantage of Washington’s missing rushing production without Jonah Coleman.
- Pressure Demond Williams and exploit any disconnect in the Huskies’ offense.
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