2026 USC Football Preview and Win Total Prediction
Over the last five decades, the USC football program has endured several unceremonious breakups between the administration and the head coach. After some lackluster results since moving to the Big Ten, will Lincoln Riley be forced to see a similar fate?
2026 USC Football Preview
Big Ten Betting Odds
| Team | 2025 Record | 2026 Win Total | B10 Odds | Nat’l Champ Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 9-4 (5-4) | 7.5 (o +135 / u -160) | +10000 | +20000 |
| Indiana | 16-0 (10-0) | 10.5 (o +105 / u -125) | +250 | +800 |
| Iowa | 9-4 (6-3) | 7.5 (o -140 / u +120) | +6000 | +12000 |
| Maryland | 4-8 (1-8) | 5.5 (o +105 / u -125) | +50000 | +80000 |
| Michigan | 9-4 (7-2) | 8.5 (o +140 / u -180) | +1500 | +4000 |
| Michigan State | 4-8 (1-8) | 4.5 (o +130 / u -155) | +50000 | +60000 |
| Minnesota | 8-5 (5-4) | 6.5 (o +130 / u -150) | +30000 | +80000 |
| Nebraska | 7-6 (4-5) | 6.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +12000 | +20000 |
| Northwestern | 7-6 (4-5) | 5.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +50000 | +80000 |
| Ohio State | 12-2 (9-1) | 9.5 (o -180 / u +150) | +180 | +600 |
| Oregon | 13-2 (8-1) | 10.5 (o EV / u -120) | +260 | +800 |
| Penn State | 7-6 (3-6) | 8.5 (o -165 / u +130) | +2000 | +6000 |
| Purdue | 2-10 (0-9) | 3.5 (o +120 / u -140) | +100000 | +100000 |
| Rutgers | 5-7 (2-7) | 4.5 (o -160 / u +130) | +50000 | +100000 |
| UCLA | 3-9 (3-6) | 6.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +16000 | +60000 |
| USC | 9-4 (7-2) | 8.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +1400 | +3500 |
| Washington | 9-4 (5-4) | 7.5 (o -170 / u +140) | +2500 | +12000 |
| Wisconsin | 4-8 (2-7) | 6.5 (o -105 / u -115) | +15000 | +50000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 1. The Trojans went 9-4 straight-up, 5-8 against the spread last year with an overtime loss to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. USC went 1-5 against the number after Halloween. The Trojans also went 1-5 against the spread away from home, and the lone win came by a half-point (lost 34-24 at Notre Dame as a 10.5-point ‘dog).
2026 USC Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 15 (Nine on offense and six on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Jayden Maiava (Returning)
Returning Production: 65-percent (67-percent on offense and 64-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 6 Nationally / No. 2 in Big Ten
Coaching Changes: New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson has been brought in to lead the defense, replacing former defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn who returned to his alma mater Penn State. Patterson has worked in a consulting role with Texas and Baylor over the past few seasons, but he has not been a full-time coach since leaving TCU in October 2021.
Returning starters are courtesy of CBS Sports. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
2026 USC Football Outlook
Might college football buyouts have finally met their match …a school not afraid to swallow a coach-friendly payoff? Or is that point on the rubicon still too far away for most schools (at least those not named Texas A&M) to cross?
Meet USC, which, if reporting from sources is correct, might be dealing with some of those dynamics regarding fifth-year head coach Lincoln Riley. If various sources are to be believed, Riley has fallen out of favor in the Trojan community for not delivering a bit more in his tenure that began with a bang in 2022.
Lincoln Riley’s Hot Seat
That was as close as Riley’s USC football program would come to a playoff berth since (and it was still just four teams in the playoff that season), a campaign in which Riley breezed into town after the preceding Clay Helton regime had crashed and burned, bringing QB Caleb Williams along from Oklahoma with him.
Williams would win the Heisman (the third Riley QB to do so after Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray), but a defensive collapse in the Pac-12 title game vs. Utah and another meltdown in Cotton Bowl vs. Tulane began to turn the tide against Riley. The Trojans’ move into the Big Ten in 2024 hasn’t gone as smoothly as hoped, either, if anything magnifying the gap between the Trojans and the nation’s elites the past couple of years.
The kicker at USC is the Riley buyout, which is said to be in Jimbo Fisher territory in the $80 million range – a protection built into Riley’s ten-year deal by agent Trace Armstrong. Now working for an athletic director and school president who didn’t hire him, Riley doesn’t have quite the same administrative backing he had early in his tenure, either. He also now has USC football general manager Chad Bowden handling much of the program’s nuances these days.
In light of reduced federal-sponsored research contributions, the school, as wealthy as it and its donor base might be, is more-sensitive to budget restrictions that various well-heeled institutions like Stanford and others have also had to acknowledge and spend accordingly. They’re running deficits in the football program at USC too – significant deficits partly tied to the construction of the new $200 Bloom Performance Center.
Sources suggest that if push comes to shove, there is ample money in the donor base to buy out Riley, and crossing that bridge might not be far away if the Trojans fall short again this fall. Of course, Riley could also bolt for the NFL where he still remains on many radar screens, while his star is still shining brightly enough, though untangling from USC’s contract provisions would need to be addressed.
Regarding Riley’s hot seat status, it’s worth noting that no football coach at SC in the past 70 years, or since Jess Hill moved from the sidelines into the AD chair in 1957, has left under ideal circumstances. Don Clark lasted three years dealing with probation penalties, and had USC at 8-0 in 1959 until losing bitterly to old rivals UCLA and Notre Dame at the end of the season, leaving under pressure to devote himself full-time to his family business concerns.
John McKay might have been the most-decorated of all Trojan coaches in a glorious 16-season run, but caused a stir upon his departure, announcing he would move to the NFL’s expansion Tampa Bay Bucs in 1976–before the end of the 1975 season. The Trojans, 7-0 and ranked 4th nationally when McKay made the announcement of the pending move during Halloween week, proceeded to lose their last four games of the regular season, creating much bitterness and hardly the send-off McKay would have deserved.
John Robinson’s first tenure had great success, too, but amid stiff NCAA sanctions, Robinson slipped quietly out the back door to the NFL Rams after the 1982 season. Ted Tollner was chased out after four years on the job, like Don Clark with painful losses to UCLA and Notre Dame in 1986 paving his road out of the Coliseum.
Larry Smith, who made three-straight Rose Bowls in his first three Trojan seasons, walked the plank after a program downturn and a humbling loss to Fresno State in the 1992 Freedom Bowl. Robinson’s second tenure would run aground in 1997, prompting his ouster. Paul Hackett’s subsequent three years never got off the ground and USC hit the eject button after a 5-7 mark in 2020.
Then came the wildly-successful Pete Carroll era, the best fourth or fifth choice (if sources are to be believed) perhaps in college history, though a pending litany of NCAA penalties sanctions prompted Carroll to leave town for the NFL (Seahawks) with his tail between his legs after 2009.
Then came Lane Kiffin, and his famous “dismissal on the tarmac” by AD Pat Haden after a humbling loss at Arizona State early in 2013. Interim Ed Orgeron, despite some support from the USC booster base, was not retained after that season.
Steve Sarkisian’s tenure ended abruptly early in 2015 amid off-field controversies. Successor Helton, who earned the full-time job after solid interim work, was eventually pushed out early in the 2021 season. After Helton, interim Donte Williams was not retained, paving the way for the ballyhooed (and pricey) Riley arrival.
The Trojans’ Horses
Of course, Riley can put to rest all of the chatter by simply getting USC into the playoffs this fall, but it might not be that easy. Even with Notre Dame off of the schedule until 2030, and a non-conference slate minus any Power 4 conference foes, the Big Ten should again be daunting, especially on the road.
USC has only won outside of the state (excluding a 19-13 win over vs. a subpar UCLA in 2024) at 2-win Purdue last September and on November 1 at Nebraska, a game in which the Cornhuskers were in control and looking well on their way to a win before QB Dylan Raiola went down with a broken leg. A painful 30-27 OT loss to a TCU team playing without QB Josh Hoover in the Alamo Bowl, when the USC defense again didn’t measure up, made it a further uncomfortable offseason for Riley.
Of course, Riley’s offense remains dynamic, ranking 8th nationally in 2025, and former UNLV transfer QB Jayden Maiava returns as the starter after first assuming the reins late in the 2024 campaign. A peripheral Heisman candidate, Maiava can be electric, but has also been hindered by lapses in judgement and prone to mistakes that have proven costly.
The receiving room must replace first-round NFL Eagles draftee Makai Lemon and big-play Ja’Kobi Lane. NC State transfer Terrell Anderson (39 catches and 5 TDs last fall for the Wolfpack) is going to be asked to deliver right away.
The biggest plus on the attack-end should be the return en masse of last year’s offensive line, good news for returnee running backs King Miller (972 yards rushing in 2025) and Waymond Jordan. Riley’s critics, however, believe his finesse-based approach on offense too often overlooks the physical dimension needed to flourish in the Big Ten. The Riley offense could maybe use some of John McKay’s old Student Body Left or Right elements, to be sure.
Defense has been the major problem in the Riley era at USC, with early-tenure coordinator Alex Grinch flaming out spectacularly in 2023. Successor D’Anton Lynn, lured away from crosstown UCLA after 2023, was considered a state-of-the-art hire, but even as the stop unit improved from the Grinch years, it still leaked far too often and was pushed around several times by more-rugged Big Ten foes.
Lynn moved to Matt Campbell’s new Penn State staff after last season, and Riley went back to the future to hire ex-TCU head coach Gary Patterson, once considered a defensive mastermind, as the new defensive coordinator. Patterson, however, hasn’t had an active coaching role since 2021, and his long tenure with the Horned Frogs ended with a whimper as he was pushed out before the end of that campaign and three lackluster seasons.
The Patterson hire looks a real roll of the dice by Riley, with the chance to blow up in his face as much as being a smashing success. Five starters return, and some touted newcomers like frosh DE Luke Wafle could feature immediately. Returnees such as DE Kam Crawford and LB Desman Stephens II are honors candidates, but too often the Riley defenses have faltered in recent years. Will Patterson and his schemes, pulled off of the shelf after five years, really resonate in 2026?
USC Trojans Win Total Prediction
Though most ratings services listed USC as having the best freshman recruiting class in the nation, the fact is many of those won’t see action this fall and any number could transfer away within a couple of years; such is the nature of modern college football. It’s better these days to be at the top of the portal recruiting class, where immediate help can be found, so we’ll see about the impact of all of these frosh blue-chippers.
The fact is that Riley’s USC football teams have mostly beaten the teams they should (especially in the 2022 season) and also lost to the teams they should, often struggling on the road and vs. better opposition. Rinse and repeat. Indeed, there’s been a similar pattern and finesse look to all of Riley’s teams since his Oklahoma days, and critics note that Riley’s career has indeed tailed off after playoff berths in his first three years with the Sooners.
Though the schedule is forgiving early, it ramps up quickly in October with successive dates vs. Oregon, Washington and Penn State…teams Riley has never beaten while at USC. Later in the fall will come Ohio State and Indiana.
We’re to the point with Riley that we have set the bar lower and will consider ourselves surprised if USC makes a national breakthrough on his watch. Recent history says that might not happen this autumn. UNDER 8.5 Wins
2026 USC Football Schedule
| Date | Day | Home/Away | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 29 | Sat | Home | San Jose State |
| September 4 | Fri | Home | Fresno State |
| September 12 | Sat | Home | Louisiana |
| September 19 | Sat | Road | Rutgers |
| September 26 | Sat | Home | Oregon |
| October 3 | Sat | Home | Washington |
| October 10 | Sat | Road | Penn State |
| Bye | |||
| October 24 | Sat | Road | Wisconsin |
| October 31 | Sat | Home | Ohio State |
| Bye | |||
| November 14 | Sat | Road | Indiana |
| November 21 | Sat | Home | Maryland |
| November 28 | Sat | Road | UCLA |
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the USC football games from their release in May all the way through Week 0 in August. Find free college football picks from season win total bets through National Championship futures on our free picks pages.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips? Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on and anytime touchdown scorer odds.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
