2026 Texas Football Preview and Win Total Prediction
The road was rocky for Steve Sarkisian’s Texas football team in 2025 as the Longhorns dropped contests at Ohio State, Florida and Georgia while missing the College Football Playoff. Arch Manning is surrounded by an all-star supporting cast, and missing the postseason in back-to-back years will not be an acceptable outcome for Coach Sark in 2026.
2026 Texas Football Preview
SEC Betting Odds
| Team | 2025 Record | 2026 Win Total | SEC Odds | Nat’l Champ Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 11-4 (7-1) | 8.5 (o -120 / u EV) | +850 | +2500 |
| Arkansas | 2-10 (0-8) | 4.5 (o +130 / u -165) | +20000 | +40000 |
| Auburn | 5-7 (1-7) | 6.5 (o -115 / u -105) | +4000 | +8000 |
| Florida | 4-8 (2-6) | 7.5 (o +130 / u -155) | +2500 | +6000 |
| Georgia | 12-2 (7-1) | 9.5 (o -180 / u +150) | +260 | +850 |
| Kentucky | 5-7 (2-6) | 4.5 (o -150 / u +125) | +14000 | +35000 |
| LSU | 7-6 (3-5) | 8.5 (o -115 / u -105) | +900 | +1800 |
| Ole Miss | 13-2 (7-1) | 7.5 (o -165 / u +130) | +1100 | +3000 |
| Mississippi State | 5-8 (1-7) | 4.5 (o -135 / u +115) | +25000 | +50000 |
| Missouri | 8-5 (4-4) | 6.5 (o -120 / u EV) | +3500 | +9000 |
| Oklahoma | 10-3 (6-2) | 7.5 (o -150 / u +125) | +1300 | +3500 |
| South Carolina | 4-8 (1-7) | 6.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +5000 | +12000 |
| Tennessee | 8-5 (4-4) | 7.5 (o -105 / u -115) | +2000 | +7000 |
| Texas | 10-3 (6-2) | 9.5 (o +120 / u -140) | +310 | +750 |
| Texas A&M | 11-2 (7-1) | 8.5 (o EV / u -120) | +850 | +2000 |
| Vanderbilt | 10-3 (6-2) | 5.5 (o -130 / u +110) | +10000 | +15000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of July 28. The Longhorns went 10-3 straight-up, 5-8 against the spread last season with a win over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. Texas dropped road games at Ohio State, Florida and Georgia with three nail-biter wins against Kentucky (OT), Mississippi State (OT) and Vanderbilt (by three).
2026 Texas Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 12 (Six on offense and six on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Arch Manning (Returning)
Returning Production: 68-percent (73-percent on offense and 63-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 3 Nationally / No. 2 in SEC
Coaching Changes: New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will replace former DC Pete Kwiatkowski (now with the Arizona Cardinals). Muschamp has worked in the SEC for the last two decades, most recently as a defensive analyst with Georgia.
Returning starters are courtesy of CBS Sports. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
2026 Texas Football Outlook
Well, at least it wasn’t quite the false alarm along the lines of the Comet Kohoutek. After all, Texas did win ten games last season with Arch Manning at QB.
It’s just that after hearing a full offseason of hype, the Heisman Trophy talk, favorable comparisons to his famous grandpa (Archie) and uncles (Peyton and Eli) and being reminded of the several million who apparently followed him on social media…Arch simply looked like a pretty good–but not yet great–QB in his true starting debut for the Longhorns last fall.
Granted, we did get a brief glimpse of Manning the previous 2024 in a couple of starts vs UL-Monroe and Mississippi State when Quinn Ewers was out, as Arch, if not yet the finished product, offered reasons for optimism but the Don King-style media blitz last summer provided a classic case of overhype.
The Arch Manning Expectations
Manning started the season in underwhelming fashion at Ohio State–a rough opener, to be sure, but Manning wasn’t able to solve the Buckeye defense in a game in which minimal production might have given Texas a win, considering how the Longhorn defense had Ohio State QB Julian Sayin similarly flustered in his college debut.
Yet until a belated TD drive late in the fourth quarter, Manning couldn’t get Texas on the scoreboard. The 14-7 loss at Columbus had many wondering what all the Manning hype was about to begin with last summer.
Of course, there are more dimensions to a football team than its QB, and certainly more in Austin than Manning, as Steve Sarkisian has loaded the pipeline in Austin with various blue-chippers into his sixth season in charge.
When the smoke finally cleared last fall, Arch’s numbers actually looked pretty good—3,163 passing yards, 26 TD passes and another 399 yards rushing. Manning did have three 300+-yard passing games in the second half of the season, and might have saved his best for the Citrus Bowl win over Michigan when passing for two touchdowns and rushing for 155 yards plus two more touchdowns on the ground, including a 60-yard scoring scamper deep into the fourth quarter that effectively served as the knockout blow for Texas en route to the 41-27 win.
Out of the gate, however, Arch tossed five picks across his first five games, and disappointed in the road losses at not only Ohio State, but Florida on October 4, which made Gators fans think for a while that maybe Billy Napier was the right guy for their head coaching job (though they would change their minds in Gainesville a couple of weeks later). It was the non-competitive mid-November 35-10 loss at Georgia, however, that got the war drums beating in Austin.
Arch, bigger and more durable physically than his celebrated uncles, and stylistically a bit more like his dual-threat grandpa, still has some tongues wagging in the Texas support base but also at least an equal number of skeptics, as it was in the defeats last season that the questions arose.
The fact all came on the road (Ohio State, Florida and then that thumper at Georgia) in a similar manner might be viewed a bit too much of a referendum on Manning, but also has many Texas-exes wondering if Sarkisian is going to be the coach to get the Horns to the promised land.
Mounting Pressure on Coach Sark
The Horns made it into the first 12-team playoff the previous 2024, winning games vs. Clemson and (with much difficulty) Arizona State in the first two rounds, and looked ready to send the semifinal vs. those same, nasty Buckeyes into OT before a Ewers giveaway on the doorstep of the OSU goal line would instead result in a long TD return by the Buckeyes’ Jack Sawyer.
Thus the opener last season vs. an OSU squad breaking in its own new QB seemed a perfect spot for not only redemption, but a launching pad for Arch’s expected Heisman bid. Neither happened, and the Horns were effectively playing catch-up the rest of the season.
In the end, despite campaigning by Sarkisian, those three road losses would keep the Longhorns out of the 12-team playoff last fall, which has angered some of the notoriously-overbearing booster base. Sarkisian was brought by those sorts in to replace Tom Herman five years ago with one objective in mind – Win the national title, not sneak in as the last entry to the playoffs. The clock is ticking.
Sarkisian, however, has left himself open for more criticism by continuing to handle play-calling duties, with ex-Rutgers head coach Kyle Flood serving as the OC but without those play-calling duties. Sark’s career, which started as QB for LaVell Edwards during college days at BYU and a coaching apprenticeship under the storied Norm Chow, has been highlighted by his play-calling exploits, though with those rewards also come the associated risks, especially at a locale as demanding as Austin.
Sark didn’t sit still with his staff in the offseason, however, hitting the eject button on defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and bringing in the well-traveled Will Muschamp, whose career highlights have been more in his various roles as DC (including an earlier stint with Texas under Mack Brown) than failed head coaching opportunities at Florida and South Carolina.
Sark’s overhaul of the defensive staff also includes defensive passing game coordinator and alum Blake Gideon, most recently the defensive coordinator at Georgia Tech, to replace Duane Akina, who also walked the plank after last fall.
A Loaded Roster
Texas has spared no expense in assembling what it assumes to be a title-caliber roster, with a NIL value that remains a bit of a mystery ($40 million? $50 million? Higher? Does Sarkisian even know?). Manning is simply the most-shiny object, but Sarkisian again hit the portal in the offseason with abandon, adding what might be another potential NFL first-round pick in ex-Auburn WR Cam Coleman.
A focus in the offseason transfer market (with an incoming portal class ranked as high as third nationally) was beefing up an offensive line that sprung too many leaks in the losses at Columbus, Gainesville and Athens last fall, with five well-regarded “big ‘uns” moving to Austin, led by ex-Wake Forest RT Melvin Siani, who is hoped to provide the other half of NFL-caliber bookends up front with LT Trevor Goosby, who is already high on Mel Kiper Jr’s list of offensive linemen for next April’s draft.
The skill positions have been further fortified from the portal, too, raiding the Big 12 for Arizona State’s top running back, Raleek Brown, who gained 1,141 yards rushing for the Sun Devils last autumn plus catching passes good for another 239 yards. The Horns also plucked Hollywood Smothers and his 939 rushing yards last fall arriving from NC State.
The aforementioned home run threat Coleman plus ex-Michigan State TE Michael Masunas should provide Manning with upgraded receiving targets.
The buzzword for defense in Austin is “aggression” and that is what Muschamp has been tasked with installing in the fall, though it should be noted that last year’s Longhorn defense ranked highly in the national takeaway chart en route to a +14 turnover margin, tied for fifth nationally.
Muschamp and Gideon welcome back five starters including several potential future NFL draft picks like SS Jelani McDonald and edge rusher Colin Simmons. Thick, All-Name 321-lb defensive tackle Hero Kanu stuffs the defensive middle pretty well alongside his DT partner, 312-lb Alex January.
Touted portal adds who figure into the starting mix right away include LB Rasheem Biles (via Pitt) and CB Bo Mascoe (via Rutgers). Again, however, last November’s heavy loss at Georgia loss still haunts the support base after the Bulldogs physically roughed up the Horns ‘tween the hedges. Can Sark survive any similar-looking beatdowns this fall?
Texas Longhorns Win Total Prediction
That Texas is going to be good, probably very good, isn’t in question. The bar, however, is set uncommonly high in Austin, as it’s effectively title game or bust for Sarkisian, who is on the verge of feeling some real heat (warranted or not) the further the Horns land from the promised land of a deep playoff run…or title, which might be the only thing to satisfy this particular fan base.
Manning, despite the overhype last year, has shown enough upside to be the catalyst, but there are concerns not only in the Texas losses last fall, but in the manner of those defeats, all with a similar look in the toughest road tests at Ohio State, Florida and Georgia, when Manning and the offense simply didn’t produce, tallying only 12.7 points per game in those losses.
Sarkisian is thankful that Kirby Smart’s Georgia, with three wins over Texas the past two seasons, is off the 2026 slate, but the schedule is once again loaded with plenty of land mines, beginning with Ohio State’s visit on September 12, road games at Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M (the latter two in mid-and-late November), plus what they used to call the Red River Shootout in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl vs. revenge-minded Oklahoma, which played last year’s game with a damaged QB John Mateer just two weeks removed from hand surgery.
Like last season, we suspect there are three losses within this schedule, and also like a year ago, the run-up to the selection committee’s announcement of the 12-team field in December will include if a three-loss SEC team warrants inclusion. Whatever the outcome, if that be the case, the Longhorns would fall short of this 9.5-win marker. UNDER 9.5 Wins
2026 Texas Football Schedule
| Date | Day | Home/Away | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 5 | Sat | Home | Texas State |
| September 12 | Sat | Home | Ohio State |
| September 19 | Sat | Home | UTSA |
| September 26 | Sat | Road | Tennessee |
| Bye | |||
| October 10 | Sat | Dallas, Texas | Oklahoma |
| October 17 | Sat | Home | Florida |
| October 24 | Sat | Home | Ole Miss |
| October 31 | Sat | Home | Mississippi State |
| November 7 | Sat | Road | Missouri |
| November 14 | Sat | Road | LSU |
| November 21 | Sat | Home | Arkansas |
| November 27 | Fri | Road | Texas A&M |
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
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