2025 Mississippi State Football Preview Presented by GoldSheet | SEC Predictions
The Mississippi State football program went winless in the SEC last season, but the Bulldogs were a bet-on team in the betting market. In Jeff Lebby’s first season at the helm, Mississippi State earned point spread covers against Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Ole Miss.
2025 Mississippi State Football Preview
SEC Betting Odds
| Team | 2024 Record | 2025 Win Total | SEC Odds | Nat’l Champ Odds |
| Alabama | 9-4 (5-3) | 9.5 (o -125 / u +105) | +380 | +1100 |
| Arkansas | 7-6 (3-5) | 5.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +15000 | +40000 |
| Auburn | 5-7 (2-6) | 7.5 (o -160 / u +135) | +2800 | +7000 |
| Florida | 8-5 (4-4) | 7.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +1800 | +4000 |
| Georgia | 11-3 (6-2) | 9.5 (o -170 / u +140) | +330 | +700 |
| Kentucky | 4-8 (1-7) | 4.5 (o -115 / u -105) | +25000 | +50000 |
| LSU | 9-4 (5-3) | 8.5 (o -140 / u +120) | +700 | +1800 |
| Ole Miss | 10-3 (5-3) | 8.5 (-110) | +1600 | +4500 |
| Mississippi St | 2-10 (0-8) | 3.5 (o -160 / u +135) | +50000 | +80000 |
| Missouri | 10-3 (5-3) | 7.5 (o +130 / u -155) | +6000 | +15000 |
| Oklahoma | 6-7 (2-6) | 6.5 (o -170 / u +140) | +2800 | +6500 |
| South Carolina | 9-4 (5-3) | 7.5 (o +125 / u -150) | +2500 | +6000 |
| Tennessee | 10-3 (6-2) | 8.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +2500 | +6000 |
| Texas | 13-3 (7-1) | 9.5 (o -170 / u +140) | +270 | +550 |
| Texas A&M | 8-5 (5-3) | 8.5 (o +125 / u -150) | +1500 | +4000 |
| Vanderbilt | 7-6 (3-5) | 5.5 (o +130 / u -155) | +20000 | +50000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of July 26. The Bulldogs went 2-10 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread last season. Mississippi State performed well as a big ‘dog last year, going 5-1 against the number as a double-digit underdog.
2025 Mississippi State Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 16 (Nine on offense and seven on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Blake Shapen (Returning)
Returning Production: 64-percent (61-percent on offense and 68-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 31 Nationally / No. 14 in SEC
Coaching Changes: No major changes. Head coach Jeff Lebby, offensive assistant Anthony Tucker and defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler all return.
Returning starters are courtesy of Phil Steele’s 2025 College Football Preview Magazine. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
2024 Mississippi State Football Stats
Strength of Schedule: No. 3 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential: -6 (No. 105 Nationally)
Plays per Game: 69.6 (No. 59)
Seconds per Play: 22.4 (No. 6)
Average Time of Possession: 25:41 (No. 132)
Mississippi State Football Stats on Offense
Yards per Game: 377.2 (No. 78)
Points per Game: 25.8 (No. 85)
Yards per Play: 5.75 (No. 71)
Offensive Success Rate: 39.5-percent (No. 103)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards): 50 (No. 87)
Net EPA per Play: -0.07 (No. 100)
Mississippi State Football Stats on Defense
Yards per Game Allowed: 456.4 (No. 126)
Points per Game Allowed: 34.1 (No. 118)
Yards per Play Allowed: 6.34 (No. 116)
Defensive Success Rate: 46.3-percent (No. 124)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards): 57 (No. 73)
Success Rate is an advanced metric that factors in the down and distance in relation to yards gained. A two-yard gain for a running back doesn’t look great in his overall box score, however a two-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 is a successful play. A low success rate on defense means you’re doing a good job of stopping the opponent from achieving successful plays. EPA stands for expected points added per play and it is a measure of how many points a team adds (or loses) on each play compared to the expected value.
2025 Mississippi State Football Schedule
2025 Football GoldSheet Newsletter
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WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Mississippi State football games from their release in May all the way through Week 1 in August. Find free college football picks from season win total bets through National Championship futures on our free picks pages.
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