Sun Bowl Best Bets : Notre Dame vs Oregon State Free Picks, Predictions 12/29

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Oregon State Beavers Best Bets: Sun Bowl Predictions & Analysis – Is Anyone Going to Play?

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky burns hot and makes picks on The Sun Bowl being played on December 29th, between small parts of Notre Dame and Oregon State’s teams. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting on a game where nobody is playing? Find top free picks and best bets here for the Sun Bowl.

On January 1, 2001, a loaded Oregon State team destroyed Notre Dame 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl.  Jonathan Smith was the QB of the soon to be 12-1 Beavers, in a game where the 3^rd string played midway through the 3^rd quarter.  I know that because I was there. 

While Oregon State (OSU) has had many great memories since then, that was a signature moment.  Notre Dame has had quite a few signature moments, and now expectations are that the Irish will be a fixture in the upcoming expanded 12-team playoff picture.  I don’t know quite what this game means to a pair of teams that will be missing at least a combined 25 starters, but here’s what I do know: This will be the toughest and saddest preview I will ever write.  

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Sun Bowl – Portal News – Everyone is MIA

The only way to begin this preview is to discuss what each team will be missing.  For the Irish, QB Hartman is gone.  That was a surprise, especially to his own coach. 

According to one source, most of their offensive starters will be gone along with Hartman, and the coordinator is gone as well (Head Coach, Troy).  Freshman Steve Angeli (19-of 25, no rush attempts) takes over.  Three freshman RB’s will take over, with one of them (Love) having some potential.  Injuries and the portal have reduced the WR/TE room. 

Maybe Notre Dame gets WR Thomas back, which would be a big deal.  Defensively, two or three starters could be gone but much of their fine defensive talent remains.  There’s still one solid option in the return game. 

OSU Isn’t Bothering to Show up Either

For OSU, it starts with the coaching staff. Smith bolted for Michigan State in a deal that was in the works (secretly) for weeks.  Blame the PAC 12 and ESPN/Fox, but how he handled the departure was wrong.  The defensive coordinator is now the permanent Head Coach, but he is out recruiting and won’t coach this game. Only three coaches remain, and some good ones are gone (elite OL coach). 

As for the players, the top two QB’s are gone.  Ben Gulbranson was a 62% passer with a 9-5 ratio in 2022 but sat on the bench this year.  RB Martinez is one of the best in all of the NCAA.  He won’t play.  One of their two top WR’s and an elite return specialist won’t play.  The top two TE’s are gone.  Three OL starters are gone. 

OSU had one of the nation’s worst kicking games in 2022.  Shockingly, that was fixed.  Their kicker (13-14) is gone.  Defensively, two CB’s are off for USC and three of their top four tacklers will be missing.  The improved pass rush (see below) stays relatively intact. 

Sun Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Notre Dame Analysis

I expect Angeli to complete a decent % of his passes, and also believe RB Love will make some noise.  The issue is losing big-time OL talent, as the OL allowed just 15 sacks this season.  OSU retains enough of their pass rushers to make this interesting.  The Irish allowed 3.9 per carry, and that number could be improved without having to face Martinez. 

The pass defense was far better in 2023, coming in at 51.7%.  Gulbranson has enough experience to better that mark, but he won’t likely stretch the field.  Kicking was average.  The defense produced 27 sacks. 

Sun Bowl Picks: Oregon State Analysis To Make Your Best Bets

OSU has more than just RB Martinez, but they will miss his ability to break big runs with his plus vision.  I think Gulbranson’s yards-per-completion figure will be low.  The Irish only allowed seven pass TD’s in 2023.  OSU allowed just 15 sacks, but this is a rebuilt OL that will be without their OL coach. 

Now there’s a kicking issue.  Defensively, OSU did just fine vs. the run and pass.  Their goal is to pressure the young QB and that might work.  Field position in this game will be huge, as OSU may slow down, but not stop Notre Dame on the ground. 

Based on style, interim coaches, and replacement players in the secondary I think there will be a big play or two allowed.  I also foresee some defensive penalties. 

Sun Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can the raw RB’s make a difference for Notre Dame?  Will the OL pass protect effectively.  How does OSU move the chains?  It’s a skeleton coaching staff, and that will be an issue.  Finally, will there be regression in special team play?

Sun Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

I believe Notre Dame will shut down OSU’s offense, and win or at least push on special team play, so it’s up to Notre Dame’s offense to do their part, as that’s the way the Beavers could make this a game.  OSU fans travel extremely well, and deserved the Holiday Bowl, but the minute USC and UCLA left the conference, things changed. 

I hope I’m wrong, but OSU (and WSU) have been left for dead, and the pilfering has already started with their best players leaving, and recruiting down the drain.  Coach Smith’s OSU clothing was spotted at the Salvation Army.  The faithful OSU fan base believed in him..

The Pick: Sun Bowl Prediction!

I like Notre Dame -6, and would consider going UNDER OSU’s team totals.  OSU will get great effort out of the players who stayed, but unless the revised Irish offense is not good enough then it won’t be enough. 

George Harrison of the Beatles penned the following: “All things must pass; all things must pass away”.  It was his way of saying nothing lasts forever.  Thank you, OSU, for decades of memories in football and especially in college baseball.  It won’t be forgotten!  

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