Iowa vs Purdue Predictions and Odds Jan 27
Iowa vs Purdue Betting Preview
Carver-Hawkeye Arena should be buzzing for Thursday night’s Iowa vs Purdue showdown in the Big Ten. At the time of posting, the Boilermakers have opened as a 2.5-point road favorite in Iowa City, with the total sitting at 158.5 points.
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| Thursday, January 27 | Big Ten Basketball Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Purdue Boilermakers -2.5 at Iowa Hawkeyes |
| Total: | 158.5 Points |
| Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
| Arena: | Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City |
| TV: | FS1 |
Iowa vs Purdue Analysis
From WagerTalk handicapper Tony Finn: Purdue Boilermakers (16-3, 5-3 Big 10) will enter Carter-Hawkeye Arena on Thursday night for a showdown with rival Iowa Hawkeyes (14-5, 4-4 Big 10). The Boilermakers are just 2-2 on the road this season. Purdue’s two road losses came at Rutgers and Indiana. The Hawkeyes have been a money-making fade in the role of a visitor this season with a 1-4 mark. The Iowa City cast of characters’ first road loss took place in West Lafayette in a 77-70 loss to the team Iowa meets tonight, Purdue.
The Big 10 houses five ranked schools, with Purdue being the highest-rated team in the national polls. The AP ranks them Boilermakers No. #6 while the team rests in the No. #7 spot in the BPI. In their latest matchup, Purdue earned a league win, with Sasha Stefanovic scoring 22 points in a 20-point 80-60 victory over Northwestern. Iowa sophomore 6’8″ forward Keegan Murray scored a game-high 15 points as the Hawkeyes put a 68-51 beatdown on the Nittany Lions of Penn State Saturday.
The Boilermakers are 3-8 ATS across their last 11 games as the bookmakers’ closing favorite and are a perfect 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing the role of a visiting favorite. As a home underdog, the Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS across their previous six games. Purdue has cashed the Over at a 5-2 clip in the school’s last seven games overall, while Purdue has landed north of the sportsbook’s consensus Over in 26 of their previous 21 events.
Poor Road Favorites
The 2021-22 Purdue campaign has resulted in Purdue winless against the number. In addition, the West Lafayette troupe is 0-3 in the team’s three road tilts as the betting favorite. The ATS losses as visitors came to Rutgers, Penn State, and Indiana.
Purdue’s task of breaking that road favorite winless streak could well come to the availability of All-American candidate Jaden Ivy. Unfortunately, the star guard’s status is in question due to a hip injury. Ivey was inactive in Sunday’s 20-point rout over the Wildcats of Northwestern.
Ivey is the team’s leading scorer averaging 16.7 points per game on 48.5 percent shooting from the field. That solid shot percentage includes the shooting guard’s 42.4 percent success rate from the 3-line.
In Sunday’s post-game presser, Purdue head coach Matt Painter told the media that he couldn’t comment on Ivey’s status until talking to the training staff.
“I have no idea,” Painter said after Sunday’s win. “Whenever they say he can go, (we will welcome him back). Just preparing your team kind of the same way, even though we’re going to run some things differently. I think that’s the only thing that would be different.”
The Boilermakers are arguably Big 10’s deepest roster. Sophomore Brandon Newman started in place of Ivey in Sunday’s win over Northwestern. The 6’5″ Newman was 0-5 from the field with one rebound and one assist in 12 minutes of playing time. Ethan Morton (2.5 points per game) and Ethan Hunter Jr. (3.8 ppg) combined for 12 points, four rebounds, and seven assists as part of the trio that received Ivey’s minutes.
Center Zach Edey is averaging 15.3 points and 7.7 rebounds, Trevion Williams had connected with game night, registering an average of 12.7 points and 8.4 boards, while shooting guard Sasha Stefanovic averages 12.1 points per game and is deadly from distance with a 41.6 percent rate of success from 3-line.
Iowa Looks for Revenge
Iowa’s 68-51 win over Penn State issued the Hawkeyes a third victory in their last four contests. The Hawkeyes are heavily dependent on 6’8″ sophomore forward Keegan Murray and his team-leading 22.8 points per game. Patrick McCaffery is the teams’ second-leading scorer but notches a dozen points less per game than Murray with an average of 10.8 points per game. Jordan Bohannon is third on the Hawkeyes scoring list netting 10.6 points per contest.
McCaffery was the Hawkeyes leading scorer in the first affair between the two programs notching 15 points. The then-No. #2 ranked Boilermakers held on for a 77-70 win on their home court and held Murray to just 12 points, ten below his season average.
Purdue’s size on the inside was too much for the Hawkeyes in that early December meeting. The Hawkeyes frontcourt combined to score 37 points in the loss. The frontcourt of Murray, McCaffrey, Filip Rebraca, and Josh Ugundele shot a combined 11-30 from the field against the Purdue bigs.
The Hawkeyes typically hold their own in the paint. Furthermore, the Iowa big men are not afraid to be physical. But the Boilermakers are a different animal than the normal frontcourt of Power 6 clubs. Purdue is long and strong across the board in terms of the frontcourt player personnel. In addition, Purdue ranks second in the nation in rebounding margin.
The Iowa first-five and the reserves are a finesse squad. They shoot the ball from beyond the arc and rarely challenge the rim off the dribble.
Iowa vs Purdue Game Forecast
3-point makes are at best ifs and buts during a game. If Iowa is comfortable firing away from downtown and connecting on 38 percent or more of their takes, the Hawkeyes are a live home dog. And writing the statement isn’t a whim and a prayer because Purdue doesn’t risk life and limb to defend the arc. On their home wood, Iowa is capable of getting hot and staying warm enough to pull the three-point shooting upset.
Purdue’s wink-link in their underlying peripherals is their lack of forcing the opposition into mistakes, turning the ball over. All things equal, the Boilermakers are defensively lazy.
Like Iowa, a bulk of Purdue’s shot attempts come from beyond the arc, and like any game, contest, or battle, one doesn’t want to play to another’s strengths, and to get into a 3-point shootout versus Iowa would doom before it resembled a boom.
Purdue’s defense isn’t consistent enough to depend on the player personnel to win a 3-point shootout with the likes of Iowa. As a whole, the Boilermakers are surrendering 1.02 points per possession across their last six games.
The WagerTalk pick to click is based on Ivey dressing and being healthy enough to play 30 hard minutes. With that belief that pick is a play on the home team plus the points. Iowa’s Hawkeyes plus the points.
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Iowa vs Purdue Analysis from GoldSheet
With an opening total of 158.5 points, it’s not a stretch to say that we should see some offensive fireworks on Thursday night. Purdue is No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency, and the Hawkeyes aren’t very far behind at No. 7.
It’s hard to believe we’ve already reached the point in the season where teams are meeting for the second time, but Purdue opened Big Ten play with a 77-70 win over Iowa last month. That game deserves an asterisk next to it because Hawkeyes’ leading scorer Keegan Murray did not play in that contest. According to KenPom, Murray is No. 22 in the country in offensive rating this season, so he plays a major factor in how Iowa runs its offense. Murray has made 67.2-percent of his two-point field goal attempts this season.
Four of Iowa’s five losses have come on the road this season, so the Hawkeyes have done a nice job of protecting home court. Purdue has shown some vulnerabilities on the road in conference play. The Boilermakers suffered their first loss of the season at Rutgers, then followed that up with a very tight win at Penn State, a double-overtime thriller at Illinois and a loss at Indiana.
Purdue runs most of its offense through the inside combo of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams, who hold a significant size advantage over most of their opponents. Perhaps they don’t get the same whistles on the road than they do at Mackey Arena?
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NCAAB Stat Sheet
Each day, WagerTalk handicapper Ralph Michaels puts together his College Basketball Stat Sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Thursday’s sheet, with notes on Thursday’s Iowa vs Purdue contest.
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College Basketball Betting Tips
College basketball totals can be one of the most frustrating, yet rewarding, things to handicap in the sports betting ‘sphere. WagerTalk’s Kelly Stewart and Drew Martin help you navigate the finer points of how to handicap college basketball totals. In this round of college basketball betting tips, Drew and Kelly break down five key factors for betting college basketball, including pace of play, changes in tempo and efficiency stats.
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