Baylor vs Arizona State Picks, Predictions and Best Bets Week 5 October 3, 2026

Is Arizona State the right side laying four points against Baylor? The Sun Devils enter with a sharper edge after a big-play win over Kansas in London, while Baylor’s offense has been a tough watch, with quarterback DJ Lagway completing just 19 of 39 passes against Colorado and the running game averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.

Kenny Dillingham also beat the Bears in the final seconds last season. This Baylor vs Arizona State prediction breaks down the line movement, the key matchups, the betting trends and our best bets on the spread and total. For more expert handicapping every week, check out our latest college football predictions.

Baylor vs Arizona State Quick Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Arizona State -4 (-108)
Total Pick: Under 49.5 (-112)
Projected Final Score: Arizona State 27, Baylor 20
Key Stat: Baylor is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry
Last Meeting: Arizona State won at Baylor in the final seconds last season

Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds

Market	Baylor	Arizona State
Spread	+4 (-112)	-4 (-108)
Total	Over 49.5 (-108)	Under 49.5 (-112)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Baylor	Arizona State	Public ($, #)
10/01	+4 (-112)	-4 (-108)	BAY 56%, BAY 74%
09/30	+4 (-110)	-4 (-110)	BAY 61%, BAY 83%
09/29	+4 (-108)	-4 (-112)	ASU 80%, BAY 76%
09/28	+4 (-110)	-4 (-110)	ASU 93%, ASU 80%
09/28	+4 (-115)	-4 (-105)	ASU 93%, ASU 80%
09/28	+4 (-110)	-4 (-110)	ASU 93%, ASU 80%
09/28	+4 (-115)	-4 (-105)	ASU 93%, ASU 80%
09/28	+3.5 (-115)	-3.5 (-105)	ASU 93%, ASU 80%
09/27	+3.5 (-105)	-3.5 (-115)	BAY 97%, ASU 75%
09/27	+4 (-110)	-4 (-110)	BAY 97%, ASU 75%
09/27	+4 (-108)	-4 (-112)	BAY 100%, BAY 100%
09/27	+4 (-112)	-4 (-108)	BAY 100%, BAY 100%
09/27	+3.5 (-108)	-3.5 (-112)	BAY 100%, BAY 100%
09/27	+3.5 (-112)	-3.5 (-108)	BAY 100%, BAY 100%
09/27	+3.5 (-108)	-3.5 (-112)	BAY 100%, BAY 100%
09/27	+3.5 (-112)	-3.5 (-108)	BAY 100%, BAY 100%

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under	Public ($, #)
09/28	49.5 (-108)	49.5 (-112)	N/A
09/28	50.5 (-110)	50.5 (-110)	N/A
09/27	50.5 (-115)	50.5 (-105)	N/A
09/27	50.5 (-120)	50.5 (+100)	N/A
09/27	51.5 (-102)	51.5 (-118)	N/A
09/27	50.5 (-115)	50.5 (-105)	N/A
09/27	51.5 (-110)	51.5 (-110)	N/A

Baylor vs Arizona State Key Matchups and Game Preview

On the surface, Baylor’s season has gone reasonably well, with its only loss coming by the narrowest of margins. Watch the games, however, and a different picture emerges. The Bears’ offense has been inefficient, and their quarterback has not looked comfortable. Arizona State, meanwhile, has shown more explosiveness and has a quarterback putting up big numbers with two new favorite targets. This might be a week to trust the eye test over the record.

Baylor QB DJ Lagway Under the Microscope

Florida transfer DJ Lagway is back for Baylor after missing the wins over Prairie View and Louisiana Tech. His return should have been a boost, but his performance last week against Colorado was tepid, as he completed just 19 of 39 passes. Lagway left plenty of doubters behind in Gainesville, and his new backers in Waco are not fully convinced yet either. A sub-50% completion rate is a major concern for a team trying to keep pace on the road.

Baylor Run Game Stuck in Neutral

Baylor’s rushing attack is gaining only 3.7 yards per carry, a pedestrian number that puts more pressure on an inconsistent passing game. When a team cannot run the ball efficiently and its quarterback is struggling with accuracy, sustaining drives becomes difficult. This does not look like an offense built to win shootouts, which matters for both the spread and the total.

Arizona State Fresh off London Win

Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State team looks to have a sharper edge, and it should be well past any jet lag after returning from London two weeks ago. The Sun Devils used big plays to beat Kansas at Wembley, including a 100-yard kickoff-return touchdown by Jaren Hamilton. The ability to create explosive plays in all three phases gives Arizona State multiple ways to win a close game.

Arizona State QB Cutter Boley’s Production

Former Kentucky quarterback Cutter Boley was not sharp in London, throwing for just 95 yards against Kansas. In North America, his numbers have been far better, including 641 passing yards and eight touchdowns in two starts. One of those came against outmanned MEAC opponent Morgan State, but Boley also had Texas A and M on its heels in College Station a few weeks ago before a couple of ill-advised fourth-quarter interceptions at Kyle Field turned that game in the wrong direction. When he limits mistakes, Boley can carry this offense.

Sun Devils New Portal Targets

Boley has found two favorite new targets from the transfer portal. Former Colorado receiver Omarion Miller and former Boston College receiver Reed Harris have combined for 39 catches in three games. That kind of chemistry gives Arizona State a reliable passing game, and it presents a clear matchup problem for a Baylor team that may struggle to keep up offensively.

Baylor Job Security for Dave Aranda

Big 12 sources believe Dave Aranda’s chances of keeping his job at Baylor are improving each week. The Bears’ only stumble came when they fell an inch short, literally, in the opener against Auburn in Atlanta. Still, Baylor has been a tough watch in that near-miss and especially last week against Deion Sanders’ Colorado. A strong record is helping Aranda’s case, but the underlying performance suggests this team is not as sharp as the results imply.

ASU Won Last Year’s Meeting

Dillingham beat the Bears on the road last season in the final seconds. That Arizona State team still had quarterback Sam Leavitt, while Baylor’s offense had more snap with gunslinger quarterback Sawyer Robertson. Both rosters have changed, but Baylor’s offense appears to have lost more of its edge than Arizona State’s has.

Betting Trends: BAY vs ASU

The spread has toggled between 3.5 and 4 all week with money swinging between both sides, while the total has dropped two full points.

ASU Spread Trends

Arizona State opened at -3.5 and has moved between -3.5 and -4, currently sitting at -4 (-108).
Early money was entirely on Baylor at 100% before flipping to Arizona State at 93% on September 28.
The latest update shows 56% of the money and 74% of tickets on Baylor.
Arizona State has drawn as much as 80% of tickets at points during the week.
Dillingham’s Arizona State won at Baylor in the final seconds last season.

BAY Total Trends

The total opened at 51.5 and has dropped two points to 49.5.
The under is juiced at -112 at the current number.
Baylor is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
DJ Lagway completed only 19 of 39 passes against Colorado.
Cutter Boley threw for just 95 yards against Kansas in London.

Key Injuries and Things To Know: BAY vs ASU

Baylor Things To Know

DJ Lagway (QB): Back in the lineup after missing the wins over Prairie View and Louisiana Tech
Baylor’s only loss came when it fell an inch short against Auburn in Atlanta.
Lagway went 19-of-39 passing last week against Colorado.
The Bears are averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
Baylor no longer has quarterback Sawyer Robertson.

Arizona State Things To Know

Arizona State beat Kansas in London two weeks ago.
Jaren Hamilton returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown against Kansas.
Cutter Boley has 641 passing yards and eight touchdowns in his two North American starts.
Omarion Miller and Reed Harris have combined for 39 catches in three games.
Boley threw two costly fourth-quarter interceptions against Texas A and M.
Arizona State no longer has quarterback Sam Leavitt.

Baylor vs Arizona State Side and Over/Under Picks

Sun Devils -4 Spread Pick

Baylor’s record looks better than its play. The Bears’ offense is struggling with a quarterback who completed under 50% of his passes last week and a running game stuck at 3.7 yards per carry. Arizona State has more explosive playmakers, a quarterback who has produced big numbers in most of his starts and two new receivers who have quickly become reliable targets. Four points is a manageable number for the sharper team, and this is a spot to trust the eye test.

Pick: Arizona State -4 (-108)

BAY vs ASU Under Pick

Baylor’s offense is not built for a shootout, and the total has already dropped from 51.5 to 49.5. If the Bears continue to struggle running the ball and Lagway remains inaccurate, they will have a hard time contributing their share of points. Arizona State can win this game with a few big plays rather than a high-volume attack, which points toward a combined score in the 40s.

Pick: Under 49.5 (-112)

Baylor vs Arizona State Final Score Prediction

Expect Arizona State to lean on Boley’s connection with Miller and Harris and capitalize on a couple of explosive plays, while Baylor’s offense stalls too often to keep pace. The Bears should remain competitive, but the Sun Devils pull away just enough in the second half to cover.

Projected Final Score: Arizona State 27, Baylor 20
Spread: Arizona State -4 (-108) covers
Total: Under 49.5 (-112) cashes with 47 combined points

Why Arizona State Covers

Baylor’s offense has looked inefficient, with Lagway completing 19 of 39 passes last week.
The Bears are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
Arizona State has explosive playmakers on offense and special teams.
Boley’s connection with Miller and Harris gives the Sun Devils a reliable passing game.

What Baylor Needs to Cover

A much more accurate performance from DJ Lagway.
A running game that can move the ball more efficiently than 3.7 yards per carry.
Forcing Boley into the type of costly mistakes he made against Texas A and M.
Limiting Arizona State’s big plays, especially in the return game.

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