Ohio State vs Iowa Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Can Iowa keep its perfect underdog streak alive against Ohio State at Kinnick Stadium? The Hawkeyes are 6-0 against the spread as an underdog since the start of last season, but they are catching two touchdowns against a Buckeyes team coming off a monster performance from Jeremiah Smith.

Ohio State has won and covered each of the last two meetings, and Iowa’s pass defense just got picked apart by a limited Michigan passing attack. This Ohio State vs Iowa prediction breaks down the line movement, the key matchups, the betting trends and our best bets on the spread and total. For more expert handicapping every week, check out our latest college football picks.

TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Ohio State -14 (-118)
Total Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)
Projected Final Score: Ohio State 34, Iowa 13
Location: Kinnick Stadium
Key Matchup: Jeremiah Smith against an Iowa secondary that just allowed 236 receiving yards to two Michigan pass catchers

Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds

Market	Ohio State	Iowa
Spread	-14 (-118)	+14 (-102)
Total	Over 45.5 (-110)	Under 45.5 (-110)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Ohio State	Iowa	Public ($, #)
09/30	-14 (-118)	+14 (-102)	OSU 89%, OSU 68%
09/30	-14.5 (-108)	+14.5 (-112)	OSU 89%, OSU 68%
09/30	-14 (-115)	+14 (-105)	OSU 87%, OSU 67%
09/30	-14 (-112)	+14 (-108)	OSU 87%, OSU 67%
09/29	-14 (-115)	+14 (-105)	OSU 88%, OSU 63%
09/29	-14 (-112)	+14 (-108)	OSU 88%, OSU 63%
09/29	-14 (-115)	+14 (-105)	OSU 88%, OSU 63%
09/29	-14 (-112)	+14 (-108)	OSU 88%, OSU 63%
09/29	-14 (-115)	+14 (-105)	OSU 88%, OSU 63%
09/29	-14 (-110)	+14 (-110)	OSU 90%, OSU 64%
09/29	-14 (-108)	+14 (-112)	OSU 90%, OSU 63%
09/28	-14 (-105)	+14 (-115)	OSU 95%, OSU 74%
09/28	-13.5 (-120)	+13.5 (+100)	OSU 95%, OSU 74%
09/28	-13.5 (-115)	+13.5 (-105)	OSU 95%, OSU 74%
09/28	-13.5 (-112)	+13.5 (-108)	OSU 95%, OSU 74%
09/28	-13.5 (-110)	+13.5 (-110)	OSU 95%, OSU 74%
09/27	-13.5 (-112)	+13.5 (-108)	OSU 92%, OSU 50%

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under	Public ($, #)
09/28	45.5 (-110)	45.5 (-110)	UN 100%, OV 67%
09/27	45.5 (-115)	45.5 (-105)	UN 100%, UN 100%
09/27	45.5 (-110)	45.5 (-110)	N/A
09/27	45.5 (-102)	45.5 (-118)	N/A
09/27	44.5 (-115)	44.5 (-105)	N/A
09/27	44.5 (-110)	44.5 (-110)	N/A

Ohio State vs Iowa Key Matchups and Game Preview

This matchup pits one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the country against a program that has built its reputation on thriving as an underdog. Iowa’s ability to keep games close is well documented, but Ohio State has handled the Hawkeyes comfortably in recent meetings, and last week’s film does not inspire much confidence in Iowa’s secondary. The spread has climbed from 13.5 to 14 as money continues to pour in on the Buckeyes.

Ohio State Star Jeremiah Smith

Jeremiah Smith was unstoppable last week against Illinois, catching 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns. Everyone in Ohio Stadium knew the ball was going his way, including the Illinois defense, and it did not matter. Smith is the type of receiver who can single-handedly swing a spread, and he gives Ohio State a matchup advantage that Iowa will have enormous difficulty neutralizing. If Kirk Ferentz looks tired on the sidelines this week, it is likely because he spent late nights game-planning for Smith.

Ohio State QB Julian Sayin Red Zone Connection

Every time Ohio State entered the red zone against Illinois, there was nothing the Illini could do to stop the touchdown connection between Smith and quarterback Julian Sayin. Red zone efficiency is one of the most important factors for a double-digit favorite trying to cover, because settling for field goals is often what keeps underdogs within the number. Sayin and Smith turning scoring chances into touchdowns is a big reason to trust Ohio State to cover two touchdowns.

Iowa Escaped Against Michigan

Iowa beat Michigan last week, but the Hawkeyes were thoroughly out-played by the Wolverines. In typical Iowa fashion, they made just enough plays when the lights were brightest to sneak out a win. That is a valuable trait, but it is also a warning sign. Relying on late-game magic against a team that out-gained them is not a sustainable formula, particularly against an Ohio State team with far more explosive talent than Michigan.

Iowa Pass Defense Concerns

Even with the win, Iowa’s defense cannot be happy with its performance against Michigan. The Hawkeyes allowed JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh to combine for 236 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 19 targets. If Michigan’s limited passing offense could generate that kind of success, Ohio State’s passing attack led by Sayin and Smith looks primed for another big outing. That is the single most important matchup edge in this game.

Hawkeyes as an Underdog Under Ferentz

The best argument for Iowa is its track record as an underdog. Since the beginning of last season, the Hawkeyes are 6-0 against the spread when getting points. Ferentz is a fantastic coach in this role, and his teams consistently find ways to shorten games and keep them close. Bettors should respect that trend, but 14 points is a large cushion that still requires Iowa to slow down one of the most dangerous passing connections in the country.

Ohio State Immune to Kinnick Stadium

Kinnick Stadium has a reputation for occasionally bringing trouble to visiting teams, but this recent group of Buckeyes has been immune to those horrors. Ohio State has the talent and composure to handle a hostile environment, and it enters with a proven formula for success against the Hawkeyes. The home crowd will be a factor, but it is unlikely to be enough to change the outcome.

OSU Recent Dominance in the Series

Ohio State has won and covered each of the last two meetings. The most recent was a 35-7 home win over Iowa in October 2024, a 28-point margin that cleared the spread with ease. That result shows the gap between these programs when Ohio State plays to its potential, and the Buckeyes’ current offensive form suggests a similar performance is possible.

Betting Trends: OSU vs IOWA

The market has been heavily one-sided on Ohio State all week, while the total has seen a small rise with mixed public splits.

OSU Spread Trends

Ohio State opened at -13.5 and moved through the key number of 14, briefly reaching -14.5 before settling at -14 (-118).
The Buckeyes have drawn between 87% and 95% of the spread money at every reported update.
Ticket counts on Ohio State have ranged from 50% to 74%.
Ohio State has won and covered each of the last two meetings.
The Buckeyes beat Iowa 35-7 in October 2024.
Iowa is 6-0 ATS as an underdog since the beginning of last season.

IOWA Total Trends

The total opened at 44.5 and moved up to 45.5.
Under money has been dominant, drawing 100% of the handle at recent updates.
Ticket counts flipped to the over, with 67% of bets on the over in the latest update.
The rise from 44.5 to 45.5 came despite heavy under money.
Last season’s meeting produced 42 combined points.

Key Injuries and Things To Know: OSU vs IOWA

Ohio State Things To Know

Jeremiah Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois.
Smith and Julian Sayin were unstoppable in the red zone last week.
Ohio State has won and covered each of the last two meetings with Iowa.
The Buckeyes won 35-7 in the last meeting in October 2024.
This recent group of Buckeyes has handled Kinnick Stadium well.

Iowa Things To Know

Iowa beat Michigan last week despite being thoroughly out-played.
The Hawkeyes allowed 236 receiving yards and two touchdowns to JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh on 19 targets.
Iowa is 6-0 ATS as an underdog since the beginning of last season.
Kirk Ferentz has an outstanding track record as an underdog coach.
The game is at Kinnick Stadium.

Ohio State vs Iowa Side and Over/Under Picks

Buckeyes -14 Spread Pick

Iowa’s underdog record is impressive, but this is a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes. Their secondary was exposed by a limited Michigan passing attack, and now they face Jeremiah Smith, who is coming off a 217-yard, four-touchdown performance. Ohio State’s red zone efficiency with Smith and Sayin should prevent Iowa from winning the field-goal-versus-touchdown battle that usually keeps the Hawkeyes within the number. The Buckeyes covered by a wide margin in the last meeting, and they should do it again.

Pick: Ohio State -14 (-118)

OSU vs IOWA Over Pick

The total sits at 45.5, and Ohio State’s passing game gives this game a clear path to clearing the number. If the Buckeyes find the end zone with the consistency they showed against Illinois, they can do most of the heavy lifting on their own. Iowa’s offense only needs to chip in a couple of scores, and the Hawkeyes will likely be forced to open up their attack if they fall behind early.

Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)

Ohio State vs Iowa Final Score Prediction

Expect Iowa to lean on its defense and keep things tight early in front of the Kinnick Stadium crowd. As the game goes on, Ohio State’s passing game should break it open, with Smith taking advantage of a secondary that just struggled against Michigan. The Buckeyes’ red zone efficiency turns a competitive first half into a comfortable win.

Projected Final Score: Ohio State 34, Iowa 13
Spread: Ohio State -14 (-118) covers
Total: Over 45.5 (-110) cashes with 47 combined points

Why Ohio State Covers

Jeremiah Smith is coming off a 217-yard, four-touchdown game.
Iowa’s secondary allowed 236 receiving yards to two Michigan pass catchers.
The Smith and Sayin connection has been automatic in the red zone.
Ohio State won the last meeting by 28 points.

What Iowa Needs to Cover

Continue its 6-0 ATS run as an underdog by shortening the game.
Find a way to limit Smith, particularly in the red zone.
Force Ohio State to settle for field goals rather than touchdowns.
Deliver the same late-game playmaking that produced the win over Michigan.

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