2026 Maryland Football Preview and Win Total Prediction
If Indiana can do it, why can’t we?! That’s been the sentiment around the Maryland football program in recent months. With a new athletic director in charge, the Terps will likely be looking to make a big swing on the gridiron. Head coach Mike Locksley is going to need a very strong season if he wants to be a part of it.
2026 Maryland Football Preview
Big Ten Betting Odds
| Team | 2025 Record | 2026 Win Total | B10 Odds | Nat’l Champ Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 9-4 (5-4) | 7.5 (o +135 / u -160) | +10000 | +20000 |
| Indiana | 16-0 (10-0) | 10.5 (o +105 / u -125) | +250 | +800 |
| Iowa | 9-4 (6-3) | 7.5 (o -140 / u +120) | +6000 | +12000 |
| Maryland | 4-8 (1-8) | 5.5 (o +105 / u -125) | +50000 | +80000 |
| Michigan | 9-4 (7-2) | 8.5 (o +140 / u -180) | +1500 | +4000 |
| Michigan State | 4-8 (1-8) | 4.5 (o +130 / u -155) | +50000 | +60000 |
| Minnesota | 8-5 (5-4) | 6.5 (o +130 / u -150) | +30000 | +80000 |
| Nebraska | 7-6 (4-5) | 6.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +12000 | +20000 |
| Northwestern | 7-6 (4-5) | 5.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +50000 | +80000 |
| Ohio State | 12-2 (9-1) | 9.5 (o -180 / u +150) | +180 | +600 |
| Oregon | 13-2 (8-1) | 10.5 (o EV / u -120) | +260 | +800 |
| Penn State | 7-6 (3-6) | 8.5 (o -165 / u +130) | +2000 | +6000 |
| Purdue | 2-10 (0-9) | 3.5 (o +120 / u -140) | +100000 | +100000 |
| Rutgers | 5-7 (2-7) | 4.5 (o -160 / u +130) | +50000 | +100000 |
| UCLA | 3-9 (3-6) | 6.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +16000 | +60000 |
| USC | 9-4 (7-2) | 8.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +1400 | +3500 |
| Washington | 9-4 (5-4) | 7.5 (o -170 / u +140) | +2500 | +12000 |
| Wisconsin | 4-8 (2-7) | 6.5 (o -105 / u -115) | +15000 | +50000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 1. The Terps went 4-8 straight-up, 5-7 against the spread last season. Maryland was 5-2 against the number in the first half of the season before dropping the last five contests.
2026 Maryland Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 14 (Six on offense and eight on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Malik Washington (Returning)
Returning Production: 71-percent (68-percent on offense and 74-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 53 Nationally / No. 14 in Big Ten
Coaching Changes: New offensive coordinator Clint Trickett arrives in College Park after serving as Jacksonville State’s offensive coordinator last season.
Returning starters are courtesy of CBS Sports. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
2026 Maryland Football Outlook
The hourglass is starting to run low in College Park for head coach Mike Locksley as his Terps have developed a disturbing yet all-too familiar pattern on his watch, usually piling up early-season wins vs. suspect non-conference opposition before fading in Big Ten play. In eight previous seasons, Locksley’s Maryland has never recorded a winning Big Ten record, with the last two campaigns bottoming out at 1-8.
Last fall might have been the most “Locksley-ish” autumn yet for Maryland, which broke 4-0 including a win over a then-troubled Wisconsin in the Big Ten opener, before proceeding to lose eight-straight to close the campaign, missing out on a bowl invite for the second-straight year. November would be especially brutal, including double-digit losses vs. suspect Rutgers and Michigan State entries.
The Mike Locksley Situation
Not all buyouts are the same, especially the ones negotiated by Jimmy Sexton and his agency (ask Mike Norvell at Florida State the value of a favorable buyout provision). Take Mike Locksley’s situation at Maryland, which to the support base became practically untenable last season amid the latest Terrapin collapse in Big Ten play.
Fortunately for Locksley, Sexton’s agency had negotiated favorable buyout provisions for him after his last contract extension following the 2022 campaign, one in which the Terps got to eight wins and won the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte over NC State by a 16-12 count.
Locksley’s deal was extended thru 2027 averaging roughly $6.5 million per year (escalators by the year), while the buyout provisions would require roughly half of the remaining value of the contract to be paid almost immediately upon any termination, with the remainder over the duration of the deal. The usual “offsets” to be paid yearly to cover the rest of the contract, which can reduce the pain and potentially save the schools big dollars if the departed coach gets rehired elsewhere, are rarely the center-piece of any Sexton agency buyout.
New athletic director Jim Smith, hired from the Atlanta Braves last summer, had to note the near-mutinous fan base, though sources said wasn’t interested in conducting a coaching search just a few months into his tenure. Locksley was thus given a stay of execution for this fall, with knowledge that his buyout provisions are not likely to help save him as before.
As every current Big Ten coach has had a contract update since Locksley’s last extension in 2022, his buyout was the lowest in the conference (roughly $13 million), with approximately half due within 60 days. Sources suggest Smith had little appetite to cough up that $6 million-plus almost immediately, but he didn’t give Locksley an extension, either. The buyout will drop to manageable levels this fall if Smith decides to hit the eject button…stay tuned.
One to watch is influential alum and Under Armour supremo Kevin Plank, whose company dresses the Terps, also the most-generous of Terp benefactors and reportedly having been on good terms with Locksley. Losing Plank’s support might be enough to signal the end of Locksley’s regime no matter what AD Smith might or might not decide to do.
Mediocre Maryland Football
There are still some, though not many, who recall Maryland football greatness, and an unofficial national title under Big Jim Tatum in 1953. The Terps were the lone unbeaten that season, and were rewarded with the top spots in the polls, which conducted their final rankings before bowl games in those days, though a loser to Bud Wilkinson’s Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
After Tatum, the program listed for 15 years until Jerry Claiborne arrived in 1972 from Eddie Crowder’s Colorado staff after a successful run at Virginia Tech, and righted the ship the next decade, eventually with several bowl winners and national rankings, followed by Bobby Ross, who did much the same before his move to Georgia Tech in 1987.
Save for a few competitive seasons under Ralph Friedgen, however, it’s mostly been mediocre since. A faction of Terp backers, recognizing that the move to the Big Ten over a decade ago hasn’t resulted in any notable successes, would like to see the school re-align with the ACC, though there is fat chance of that after a long and bitter lawsuit to extract from the conference costing in the tens of millions of dollars. The hope for Maryland supporters is that longtime Big Ten-gridiron punching bag Indiana has authored a startling turnaround the past two years under Curt Cignetti…if the long-moribund Hoosiers can do it, why can’t the Terps?
It won’t be easy, though Locksley hopes the return of sophomore QB Malik Washington, who could have been a top-shelf transfer in the portal if he so desired, can lead a revival. With a rifle arm and good mobility for a 6-foot-5 QB, Washington looked the real deal at times as a frosh last autumn, but was too often reduced to being a one-man gang with little support from a moribund infantry that ranked a lowly 122nd in national rushing stats.
New OC Clint Trickett, a former QB at Florida State and West Virginia whose dad Rick tutored various high-profile signal-callers in his career, has arrived from Arkansas (where he had just been hired two months before as Ryan Silverfield’s new QB coach) with the directive to spice-up the attack however possible.
“Space and pace” are the new bywords for offense at College Park, with Trickett hoping the new uptempo can generate 70-90 snaps per game. The skill-position group, however, will feature many portal adds, including wideouts Chris Durr (45 catches last year at Wyoming) and Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding (51 catches last fall at Old Dominion), who will be expected to hit the ground running. Three starters do return along the forward wall but that unit was often a disappointment a season ago, and improvement is needed urgently.
Meanwhile, the defense performed with some flair at times last season, but like the general trend of the Terps would taper off as the season progressed. Locksley was able to keep elite pass-rush DEs Sidney Stewart and Zahir Mathis in the fold and out of the portal, while frosh DE Zion Elee might be the best-regarded recruit in the Locksley era, giving DC Ted Monachino some intriguing pass-rush rotations.
Still, recent Maryland stop units have been a bit too permissive vs. the run (ranked 99th nationally against the rush a year ago), and depth has been a recurring issue in recent seasons. The hope is that eight returning starters (a big number of returnees these days), and almost the entirety of a secondary that expects once-ballyhooed now-sophomore safety Messiah Delhomme to experience a breakthrough, suggests the Terps aren’t going to get pushed around this fall. We’ll see if that turns out to be so much wishful thinking.
Maryland Win Total Prediction
The overwhelming consensus among Big Ten observers is that Locksley is under the gun this fall, with a buyout now reaching manageable levels and working for an athletic director who didn’t hire him.
Another fast start, a Locksley trademark, is going to be double-important in the fall with the stakes raised on his regime, and to that end, the fact the September slate looks a bit trickier than in recent years with a potentially-dangerous three-game stretch vs. foes all excited about their new coaching hires (Jason Candle’s UConn on the road, then James Franklin’s Virginia Tech and Bob Chesney’s UCLA at home) potentially a lot more challenging than recent September slates. With road dates at Nebraska and Ohio State to follow, some regional onlookers aren’t sure if Locksley will survive past Columbus Day if the Terps can’t break fast.
They’ll have a puncher’s chance with Malik Washington at the controls, but there are more ways for the season to go off-course, with the potential distraction of a coaching change looming overhead…hang on for the ride in College Park. Under 5.5 Wins
2026 Maryland Football Schedule
| Date | Day | Home/Away | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 5 | Sat | Home | Hampton |
| September 12 | Sat | Road | UConn |
| September 19 | Sat | Home | Virginia Tech |
| September 26 | Sat | Home | UCLA |
| October 3 | Sat | Road | Nebraska |
| October 10 | Sat | Road | Ohio State |
| October 17 | Sat | Home | Rutgers |
| Bye | |||
| October 31 | Sat | Home | Illinois |
| November 7 | Sat | Road | Purdue |
| November 14 | Sat | Home | Wisconsin |
| November 21 | Sat | Road | USC |
| November 28 | Sat | Home | Penn State |
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
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