2026 Wisconsin Football Preview and Win Total Prediction
From curious offensive coordinator hires to splashy quarterback transfers, Luke Fickell has tried to craft some unique solutions to rescue the Wisconsin football program from the doldrums of the Big Ten in recent years. Heading into the 2026 season, the Badgers’ head coach turned to Old Dominion from the Sun Belt with hopes that QB Colton Joseph can light a spark under the offense.
2026 Wisconsin Football Preview
Big Ten Betting Odds
| Team | 2025 Record | 2026 Win Total | B10 Odds | Nat’l Champ Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 9-4 (5-4) | 7.5 (o +135 / u -160) | +10000 | +20000 |
| Indiana | 16-0 (10-0) | 10.5 (o +105 / u -125) | +250 | +800 |
| Iowa | 9-4 (6-3) | 7.5 (o -140 / u +120) | +6000 | +12000 |
| Maryland | 4-8 (1-8) | 5.5 (o +105 / u -125) | +50000 | +80000 |
| Michigan | 9-4 (7-2) | 8.5 (o +140 / u -180) | +1500 | +4000 |
| Michigan State | 4-8 (1-8) | 4.5 (o +130 / u -155) | +50000 | +60000 |
| Minnesota | 8-5 (5-4) | 6.5 (o +130 / u -150) | +30000 | +80000 |
| Nebraska | 7-6 (4-5) | 6.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +12000 | +20000 |
| Northwestern | 7-6 (4-5) | 5.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +50000 | +80000 |
| Ohio State | 12-2 (9-1) | 9.5 (o -180 / u +150) | +180 | +600 |
| Oregon | 13-2 (8-1) | 10.5 (o EV / u -120) | +260 | +800 |
| Penn State | 7-6 (3-6) | 8.5 (o -165 / u +130) | +2000 | +6000 |
| Purdue | 2-10 (0-9) | 3.5 (o +120 / u -140) | +100000 | +100000 |
| Rutgers | 5-7 (2-7) | 4.5 (o -160 / u +130) | +50000 | +100000 |
| UCLA | 3-9 (3-6) | 6.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +16000 | +60000 |
| USC | 9-4 (7-2) | 8.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +1400 | +3500 |
| Washington | 9-4 (5-4) | 7.5 (o -170 / u +140) | +2500 | +12000 |
| Wisconsin | 4-8 (2-7) | 6.5 (o -105 / u -115) | +15000 | +50000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 1. The Badgers went 4-8 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread last season. Wisconsin’s last nine games all stayed under the total as the Badgers were held to an average of 9.0 points per game in Big Ten play. You have to go back to October 2024 to find the last time Wisconsin won a game away from Madison.
2026 Wisconsin Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 4 (Three on offense and one on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Colton Joseph (Transfer from rom Old Dominion)
Returning Production: 59-percent (61-percent on offense and 57-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 65 Nationally / No. 17 in Big Ten
Coaching Changes: No major changes. Head coach Luke Fickell, offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and defensive coordinator Mike Tressel all return to Madison.
Returning starters are courtesy of CBS Sports. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
2026 Wisconsin Football Outlook
Rewind back a generation to the apex of the decorated Barry Alvarez era at Madison when the Badgers were a postseason regular and a Top Ten/Rose Bowl threat almost every year. Now, could you imagine an Alvarez-led Wisconsin side counting upon a transfer from…Old Dominion as the possible savior for an upcoming season?!
No knock on the Monarchs, but such is the current and, at least by recent history standards, somewhat desperate state of Wisconsin football under Luke Fickell that pins its hopes on a Sun Belt transfer to improve recently-flagging results.
“Flagging” might be an understatement for the so-far underwhelming three-season tenure of Fickell, who arrived in Madison amid much fanfare in front of the 2023 campaign after steering Cincinnati to some unprecedented heights, including a 2021 playoff berth when only four teams were invited.
Wisconsin’s fortunes under Fickell, however, have dropped like the winter temperatures in Kenosha. The Badgers have missed bowl action in consecutive years for the first time since the earliest days of the Alvarez regime almost 35 years ago, and Fickell’s 17-21 straight-up mark had then-AD Chris McIntosh (who has since moved to the Big Ten office), amid some intense pressure from various boosters, consider pulling the plug on Fickell before granting him a one-year reprieve following last fall’s 4-8 disappointment.
Indeed, since late in the preceding 2024 campaign, Wisconsin has lost 13 of 17, prompting regional oldtimers to relive long-forgotten nightmares of the desperate John Coatta era in the late 60s. Fickell now has another potential concern with a new athletic director, Shawn Eichorst, most recently Deputy AD at Texas and a former Alvarez protégé, hired in July, and who understandably might want to get his own hire on the job if results don’t improve.
What might have actually granted Fickell a mulligan from McIntosh last November was an early-season injury to Maryland transfer QB Billy Edwards, Jr. (now at North Carolina), who went down for the season with a knee injury in the Miami-Ohio opener. Fickell’s QB room, however, was quite shallow last fall, and the Badgers proceeded to post some of the worst offensive numbers in the country, including just 12.8 ppg and 253.1 ypg (both ranking a lowly 133rd nationally).
Yet some savvy Madison observers suggest the rot had already set in before, as the old smashmouth, ground-and-pound formula that Alvarez, Bret Bielema, Gary Andersen, and, until the end of his regime, Paul Chryst had been able to sustain had already disappeared, as any hint of the old Wisconsin smashmouth identity has been lost in the Fickell era, well before the injury to Edwards.
To wit: Wisconsin had been ranking well up the track in national rush stats in recent years (placing only 85th a year ago), a far cry from the days of Brent Moss, Ron Dayne, Montee Ball, Melvin Gordon et al who would routinely have the Badgers in the top ten of rush rankings.
Fickell’s remedy is Old Dominion transfer QB Colton Joseph, admittedly an exciting dual-threat who proved a handful in the Sun Belt, passing for 32 TDs and rushing for 1,654 yards across the past two seasons. Still, the Belt isn’t the Big Ten, and a skittery QB like Joseph is far from the identity the Badgers developed over a previous generation.
Of more help might be Iowa State transfer RB Abu Sama III, a low-slung pile-driver in the mold of some of the bruising ball-carriers in the Alvarez and Bielema eras. Yet the Badgers’ design under OC Jeff Grimes certainly isn’t smashmouth anymore, as Badger supporters are rightly concerned about this change of offensive identity, much like Nebraska gradually lost all connection to the physical, pounding style of the Tom Osborne era, now just a memory in Lincoln.
Granted, the defense held its own a year ago, and keyed late-season home upsets over Washington and Illinois, but only one starter returns to the fold. Some regional observers also suggest that Wisconsin’s No. 24 ranking in total defense last season was at least partly due to the slow pace of its games and opposing offenses rarely playing with much urgency, as it didn’t take much to outscore an offense that averaged less than 14 points per game.
Fickell and DC Mike Tressel made only modest forays into the portal for reinforcements on the stop end, and are mostly relying upon rotation and depth pieces from a year ago to step into featured roles. One area where transfers are going to have to hit the ground running, however, is at the cornerback spots, where four new faces were enlisted from the portal. Another transfer, strong safety Marvin Burks, Jr, started 13 games for Missouri last season and is expected to become one of the platoon’s leaders right from the off.
Wisconsin Win Total Prediction
The pressure is on Fickell, who not only has to make amends for two very subpar seasons by Wisconsin football standards, but now working for an athletic director who didn’t hire him. Recent offseason proclamations to re-establish the Alvarez identity have been nothing more than lip service, and the proof has been in the pudding. The Badgers simply aren’t overpowering foes as they often did for the 30 or so years previous to Fickell’s arrival.
The additions of QB Joseph and RB Sama seem positives, but Wisconsin hasn’t won since the days of Ron VanderKelen if playing anything other than ground-and-pound. Also, what if injuries hit the QB position like a year ago when Fickell had no viable Plan B after Edwards went down?
The schedule maybe isn’t as forgiving as some suggest, either, swapping out Alabama for Notre Dame (at Lambeau Field) in the non-league slate, and while missing Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana from last year, picking up Penn State and USC, while old foes Iowa and Minnesota beat the Badgers by a combined 54-7 last fall.
Maybe Fickell gets the Badgers bowl-eligible, but all that takes these days is 6-6 (and in some cases just 5-7)…will that be enough for new AD Eichorst to throw Fickell another lifeline for 2027? We’ll see. UNDER 6.5 Wins
2026 Wisconsin Football Schedule
| Date | Day | Home/Away | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 6 | Sun | Green Bay, Wisc | Notre Dame |
| September 12 | Sat | Home | Western Illinois |
| September 19 | Sat | Home | Eastern Michigan |
| September 26 | Sat | Road | Penn State |
| October 3 | Sat | Home | Michigan State |
| Bye | |||
| October 17 | Sat | Road | UCLA |
| October 24 | Sat | Home | USC |
| October 31 | Sat | Road | Iowa |
| November 7 | Sat | Home | Rutgers |
| November 14 | Sat | Road | Maryland |
| November 21 | Sat | Road | Purdue |
| November 27 | Fri | Home | Minnesota |
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
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