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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| GBL | (202401) VFB Stuttgart at (202402) FC Koln | 9:30am EDT - Sep 30/2023 |
The PLAY: REGULATION VFB Stuttgart 0.0 (-125)
Koln vs Stuttgart
Bundesliga, Saturday, 9:30am ET
-THIS IS AN ACTUAL ALL-ACCESS CLIENT PLAY-
Koln are one of the teams that haven't won any of the 5 first matches of the season (D1 L4), scoring just 4 goals and conceding 9. They will now play host to one of the big surprises of the Bundesliga so far, Stuttgart, who are coming off another big win.
Stuttgart (W4 L1) have the 2nd best offense in the league with 17 goals, they have scored 3+ goals in 4 of 5 matches (and in the Cup match) and their offense is working miraculously. They went unbeaten against Koln last season with a 3-0 win at home and a goal-less draw in this venue. And now Stuttgart only grew stronger this season, while Koln are ever worse than last season.
Stuttgart have lost just 2 of L10 matches against Koln (W5 D3 L2) and they have lost just once as visitors to Koln since 2001 (W6 D6 L1). Koln are under a lot of pressure to get their first win but recent form and historical data tip the scales in favour of Stuttgart here. The play is STUTTGART PK (or Draw no Bet, it's the same bet) which is -125 Draftkings / -130 FanDuel, and there are more alternative ways to bet on this match explained below (Totals, Props, SGP).
Play: Stuttgart PK (Draw no Bet)
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135, no play if odds lower than -135, reduce 2% if line is 0.25
TOTALS
Koln will need to go out and attack in search of goals and their first win, they will feel the pressure of performing in front of their home crowd, maybe an early goal will get them going. But they will open up at some point and Stuttgart are lethal on the counter attacks, but not so reliable at the defense. After all, Stuttgart can score 3 goals on their own to give us at least a half win.
-Over 2.75 Goals (-120 Draftkings)
-Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-115 DraftKings)
PROPS
Koln scored the first goal in their matches against Werder Bremen, Frankfurt and Wolfsburg but went on to lose two of them. Stuttgart scored first against Leipzig but went on to lose that one, and conceded first against Darmstadt but went on to win that one. If you want some high scoring props:
-Stuttgart to win from behind (+750 Draftkings)
-Koln to win from behind (+850 Draftkings)
-Any Team To Come From Behind And Win - Yes (+500 MGM)
SAME GAME PARLAY
We can create a Same Game Parlay that also gets us paid in the event of a Draw. Take Stuttgart or Tie & Over 1.5 Goals (-119 FanDuel / -130 Draftkings) but keep in mind that Draftkings are doing something weird with Same Game Parlays. They have ready made SGPs and this particular one is at -190, but if you go and create your own SGP by picking the exact same events (Stuttgart or Tie) & (Over 1.5 Goals) the price is -130 (but we need at least a couple of goals).
-SAME GAME PARLAY (SGP): Stuttgart or Tie & Over 1.5 Goals (-119 FanDuel / -130 Draftkings)
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| EPL | (200081) Brighton & Hove Albion at (200082) Aston Villa | 7:30am EDT - Sep 30/2023 |
The PLAY: REGULATION Half with Most Goals - 2nd (-102)
Aston Villa vs Brighton
EPL, Saturday, 7:30am ET
-THIS IS AN ACTUAL ALL-ACCESS CLIENT PLAY-
Brighton have scored 5 and conceded 2 goals in 6 first halves so far, so the average first half goals is 1.17 per first half.
Aston Villa have scored 5 and conceded 4 goals in 6 first halves, so the average first half goals is 1.50 per first half.
However, both teams have much higher totals in second halves, with both teams both scoring more and conceding more.
Brighton have scored 13 and have conceded 6 second half goals, so the average second half goals is 3.16 goals per second half.
Aston Villa have scored 7 and have conceded 6 second half goals, so the average second half goals is 2.16 goals per second half.
Judging by those metrics (albeit from a small sample), there should be more goals in the second half and you can find that prop both at Draftkings and on FanDuel (in the Halves tab), where we are taking Half with most Goals - 2nd Half (-102 FanDuel / -115 Draftkings)
Play: Half with Most Goals - 2nd
Odds at Time of Release: -102
Line Parameter: Playable to -115, no play if odds lower than -115
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Consultant Bio
Pavlos betting on European sports when he was in High School, back when most people his age didn’t even know how to bet. After acquiring a Bachelor’s Degree in International Economic Relationships & Development from the Democritus University in Greece, Pavlos took a different path.
Things really took off for him in 2014 when he officially started writing predictions for US-based sites. Things picked up pretty quickly, and he has produced thousands upon thousands of match previous and predictions. He tends to venture off the beaten path, looking for hidden gems in a myriad of games you can bet on.
Single and double bets aside, Pavlos likes to play the odds as well. While some days there are safe single bets, there are other days that provide opportunities for different bets. Bets like Correct Scores, amount of Yellow Cards, Half-Time/Full-Time results, and all kinds of prop bets. Pavlos covers the following leagues: Major League Soccer (MLS), Copa America, EURO Cup, English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1, Champions League, and Europa League.
The betting systems he created have seen some massive pay-outs over the years. A couple of correct scores paired together can potentially save your entire season. These are small-stake bets that cost a few units but could bring massive returns on your investment.