College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets October 15

East Carolina is coming off this past Saturday's 28-12 win over Rice and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite.

Any Thursday college football favorite of between -4.5 to -11.0 that's playing with no rest and is coming off covering as a double-digit favorite has gone 7-0-1 ATS since 2018. The average point-spread for those 8 favorites was -8.9, and they outscored their opponents by an average of 21.5 points per game.

Bet East Carolina as a point-spread favorite of -6.0 or lower.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Pretty short number here for a Georgia Southern team that's 5-1 ATS and probably should have beaten James Madison last week (lost 27-24 as a 7-point dog). I've released just ONE 5% play so far in College Football and it was on this Ga Southern team (when they hosted Houston and covered as a 17.5-point underdog). I do worry about Thursday being a potential flat spot for the Eagles, coming off a tough loss to the best team in the Sun Belt.

But Old Dominion is bad. Their 10-3 win at Appalachian State last Saturday was played in terrible conditions. It was the Monarchs' first win over an FBS opponent and snapped an 0-5 ATS start to the season.

ODU has scored just 78 total points in five FBS games. That's an average of 15.6 points per game. Looking at that scoring average, and the fact Georgia Southern is such a small favorite, betting the Under in this game makes a ton of sense to me. The market concurs as the O/U opened 50.5.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

(203) Virginia at (204) SMU: Spread

SMU -8.5 (-114)

SMU Mustangs Performance

• Current Record: The Mustangs are coming off a misleading win against Boston College, where they secured a 25-16 victory despite being outgained by 104 yards. The Mustangs’ recent bye week should reset their momentum and bring back the energy and efficiency they displayed earlier this season, contributing to an overall more favorable matchup.

• Home Underdog Success: At home, SMU boasts a 6-1 (86%) record as underdogs or favorites up to -12. Notably, they have covered the spread by an average of 20.5 points per game.

• Offensive Efficiency: SMU’s offense is robust, averaging:

  • 484 yards per game,

  • 346 passing yards per game,

  • An impressive 76% completion rate.

Virginia Cavaliers Performance

• Recent Struggles: Virginia has faced difficulties in their last outings, particularly noted in their two losses where they allowed 400+ yards on defense.

• Outgained in Recent Games: In their last three games against FBS opponents, Virginia has been outgained by:

  • 83 yards,

  • 259 yards,

  • 142 yards.

Betting Trends

• According to system data, away underdogs off a win while being outgained by at least 120 yards have a record of 35-61-3 (37%). This highlights the potential for SMU to capitalize on Virginia’s vulnerabilities when they meet.

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The Cincinnati-West Virginia total is deceptively high: both teams can generate explosive plays, but their run-heavy identities favor sustained possessions and a moving clock over repeated quick-strike scores.

Run-Heavy Game Script

Cincinnati arrives in West Virginia at 4-1 and averages 4.66 points per scoring opportunity, but 55.8% of its plays are runs, with the Bearcats averaging 6.0 yards per carry. West Virginia is even more committed to the ground game, rushing on 72.3% of its plays—the fifth-highest rate nationally—while averaging 5.1 yards per carry and producing 1,773 rushing yards through six games. The Mountaineers’ 26.2% pass rate ranks 134th, reducing clock-stopping incompletions and encouraging longer possessions. Although West Virginia plays quickly at 22.57 adjusted seconds per snap, its extreme rushing volume should offset that tempo by keeping the clock moving.

Efficiency and Ball Security

Cincinnati has struggled against the run, allowing a 46.3% rushing success rate and 0.11 rushing PPA. Even so, West Virginia’s ground-oriented attack must repeatedly execute long drives rather than rely on quick passing touchdowns.

The Bearcats have also protected the football exceptionally well, committing only two turnovers all season. Their quarterbacks have thrown no interceptions and own a 0.00% turnover-worthy-play rate, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). That discipline reduces short fields and defensive touchdowns—two common threats to an Under.

West Virginia averages 9.6 yards per pass when it throws, but its 36.1% passing success rate ranks 121st, and its 52.6% completion rate ranks 131st. Cincinnati is much more efficient through the air, completing 71.8% of its passes, yet averages only 7.5 yards per attempt and continues to lean on a rushing attack ranked fourth nationally in rushing PPA (0.31). West Virginia’s defense—9.7 yards allowed per attempt and a 52.7% passing success rate allowed—is the greatest threat to the Under, but Cincinnati’s balanced, run-oriented approach offers a credible path to limiting possessions.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides three supporting Under systems:

• Teams coming off games in which they scored at least 30 points while allowing 45 or more are 473-365 to the Under (56.4%), producing +71.5 units since 2013;

• A subset angle requiring a total of at least 60 points is 272-211 to the Under (56.3%);

• Conference games involving a team coming off a 30-plus-point performance in which its opponent scored more than 48 points are 309-220 to the Under (58.4%) since 1989.

Both offenses rely heavily on the run, Cincinnati protects the football at an elite level, and West Virginia struggles to sustain efficient passing possessions. Combined with the historical systems, those factors support a lower-scoring game. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 17.

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

Take Texas (#174)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below breaks down a pair of College Football Saturday early start games in the SEC: LSU vs Mississippi State and Florida vs Texas.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Longhorns - Gators battle.

Florida is in a world of hurt right now and it’s not going to get any easier heading into Austin to face the former #1 team in the country coming off a ‘we gave it to them’ loss to Oklahoma last Saturday.  The Gators went 4-8 last year, and have been blown out in back-2-back games; not exactly bursting with confidence these days.  They’re likely to be without injured starting QB Aaron Philo.  Unlike Texas, Florda hasn’t had a bye yet.  Expect that to matter in the second half here…. Take Texas.

Released/revised 21 hour(s) ago

Take Washington (#119) 

The ‘Daily Double’ video below breaks down a pair of Friday Night TV Games: Purdue vs Washington on Fox and Memphis vs Tulane on ESPN.  Here’s a brief write-up for Purdue- Washington.

I’m a Barry Odom fan and I watched what he did here in Las Vegas — turning a UNLV program that had been mediocre at best for three decades into an immediate winner.  But the Big 10 isn’t the Mountain West.  Odom’s Boilermakers are coming off back-2-back upset wins — fat and happy — now laying more than a field goal.  And Jedd Fisch’s Huskies grade out as the team with more talent.  Even if starting QB Demond Williams can’t suit up (questionable as I post this), his backup can play!  Too many points.  Take Washington.

Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago

This is the first meeting between Oklahoma and Kentucky since the Sooners joined the SEC. Both teams are coming off upset wins last week. Kentucky has won-and-covered each of its last four games after last week's home win over LSU. The Wildcats have already earned three outright upset wins in SEC play, and for roughly 45 minutes, it looked like they were going to upset Alabama, too. Kentucky's last five games have all gone over the total, although the last two were both aided by overtime. While Kentucky finds itself in a thriller every week, Oklahoma finds ways to win in the ugliest fashion possible. The Sooners earned the Red River victory over Texas last week with only one touchdown scored on offense. Oklahoma finished with 238 total yards and 14 first downs on 4.2 yards per play. The Sooners went 2-for-13 on third down and had to punt nine times. Laying points with Oklahoma is not easy at the moment, but we can only look in the Sooners' direction. Will Stein deserves a ton of credit for what he is building in Lexington, but at some point, you simply run out of gas. Oklahoma had a bye two weeks ago, so the Sooners' legs are relatively fresh. Kentucky just played back-to-back overtime games in the SEC, and they were pushed to the limit by South Alabama the week before that. At some point, you run out of gas. Oklahoma's defense is top-10 in the country in almost every meaningful metric. Play Oklahoma

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

When we’re saying things aren’t the same in Lubbock this year, we’re not talking about the ribeyes at the local Saltgrass Steak House, which remain as good as ever. Rather, it’s the local Red Raiders, who despite being unbeaten like they were at this stage in 2025 are not really doing it in the same manner after stomping through most of their schedule a year ago like Godzilla once did to Tokyo. To wit: unless one timed the bet just right against outclassed Sam Houston, the Red Raiders didn’t have a spread cover the first month of this season until Colorado imploded in a hail of giveaways in the 4th Q at Boulder two weeks ago, turning a close game into a 29-7 Texas Tech win, and even then the Lubbock boys were outgained by the bumbling Buffs. Those issues on offense have been constant all season and a fear among Texas Tech backers since the Brendan Sorsby transfer from Cincinnati went off the rails in the offseason. Holdover QB Will Hammond has yet to look like he's shaken off last year's knee injury while posting very modest (subpar?) numbers including just 5 TD passes along with 5 picks into mid-October, while Joey McGuire’s potential rabbit-up-his-sleeve, mobile ex-BC and Florida State transfer Tommy Castellanos, a possible alternative after his late summer transfer, is now off the table (for the time being, at least) after a Kentucky court just sided with the NCAA and invalidated Tommy’s eligibility. Moreover, despite facing various outmanned foes, the ground game isn’t bullying foes like last season, either, with leading returning rusher Cam Dickey's (1124 YR in 2025) reduced contributions this term and ankle injury suffered at Boulder among other issues. It’s worth noting that it was none other than Arizona State that put the one regular-season blemish on the Red Raiders a year ago at Tempe in Sam Leavitt’s last hurrah as Sun Devils QB before a season-ending injury, so we suppose there is a revenge factor on the side of McGuire’s troops. Our question here is trusting this Arizona State version that was recently exposed by a Baylor side whose offense had previously borne a resemblance to UTEP’s, but would nonetheless burn the Sun Devils for 55 points. Yet Tech’s previous struggles with some comparable or even lesser sides makes us doubt this Red Raider version can be trusted to extend margins like a year ago, and can expect ASU’s Kentucky transfer QB Cutter Boley (12 TD passes) to at least keep winging the ball for 60 minutes. Play Arizona State **VALID AT +13 AND ABOVE

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The Golden Flashes are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Bulls will be looking to take out their anger on someone. Kent State represents the perfect victim. Kent State has played three road games and is 0-3 losing by a combined score of 154-10. Granted, those were some very tough venues. However, this is another one. The American Conference is much stronger than the MAC and the Bulls are (at least) a mid tier team from the American Conference while the Flashes are among the weaker teams in the MAC. That makes them one of the weaker teams in the entire country. I've got an angry and superior USF team winning by more than three touchdowns. *good at -21 or better

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Arizona State.

Texas Tech is 5-0, and a double digit home favorite here this week hosting Arizona State. That is despite the fact that the Sun Devils have the better defense (statistically) and the better QB (realistically). Only UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati have allowed more yards per game than Texas Tech so far. I don't think this team is 14.5 points better than Arizona State!

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Massachusetts offers an attractive opportunity as a 6.5-point road underdog against Buffalo, with the Minutemen possessing significant advantages in offensive efficiency and ball security. Despite their 4-2 record, the Minutemen have played the nation's weakest schedule, making their statistical production difficult to evaluate in isolation. Nevertheless, Massachusetts ranks 66th nationally in offensive success rate (44.0%) compared with Buffalo's 130th-place ranking (34.8%), a substantial efficiency advantage that should translate into more manageable down-and-distance situations. The Minutemen also rank 36th nationally in passing PPA (+0.35), while Buffalo's passing offense ranks 118th (+0.05) and generates just 5.2 yards per attempt, the worst mark nationally. Massachusetts completes 69.8% of its passes, ranking 17th nationally, and has thrown only two interceptions, a meaningful advantage over a Buffalo offense that completes just 51.6% of its attempts. Pro Football Focus (PFF) reinforces that quarterback disparity, with the Minutemen holding decisive advantages in clean-pocket passer rating (110.4 to 77.3), passer rating under pressure (93.1 to 57.3), and turnover-worthy play percentage (1.69% to 2.86%).

UMass Quarterback Injuries/Depth

After dropping consecutive MAC games, the Minutemen face an increasingly difficult injury situation heading into Saturday’s trip to Buffalo. Starter Pop Watson missed Saturday’s game and is “unlikely” to return against Buffalo, while true freshman Aedan McCarthy, who made his first career start against Miami, suffered an injury that is expected to keep him sidelined as well. “We’ll see if Pop can go,” head coach Joe Harasymiak said. “I don’t know that. It’ll depend on later in the week, his body and how it responds to everything we’re doing. Probably unlikely for the most part.”

Harasymiak was also pessimistic about McCarthy’s availability. “Aedan is more than likely out with his injury. So we got the two-headed monster right now of Logan (Inagawa) and Ty (McCutcheon) that got to go in there.” Inagawa completed all six of his passes for 83 yards after replacing McCarthy against Miami, including a 21-yard touchdown to Max Dowling.

The rushing matchup also favors Massachusetts, which averages 4.9 yards per carry and ranks 65th nationally in rushing success rate (44.9%), compared with Buffalo's 3.7 yards per attempt and 126th-place rushing success rate (35.5%). Buffalo's defensive front has struggled to disrupt opposing rushing attacks, ranking 103rd nationally in stuff rate (16.4%) and allowing 3.09 line yards, creating opportunities for Massachusetts to sustain possessions and avoid obvious passing situations. The Minutemen also rank 19th nationally in defensive points allowed per scoring opportunity (2.75), while Buffalo ranks 61st (3.23). Turnover differential provides another important advantage, as Massachusetts has a +7 margin, ranking eighth nationally, compared with Buffalo's -4 margin, ranking 119th. Massachusetts has also forced 11 turnovers while committing only four, whereas Buffalo has forced just five and committed nine, a disparity that could prove decisive in a matchup with a relatively low total. The Minutemen's deliberate offensive tempo, averaging 29.83 seconds per play compared with Buffalo's 24.45 seconds, should limit possessions and increase the value of each possession.

My technical database also supports Massachusetts, as road underdogs of 3 to 16 points in games with totals between 41 and 46 points have produced a 140-81 ATS record (63.3%; +50.9 units) since 1989. A broader system targeting unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game with totals of 47 points or fewer has generated a 488-379 ATS record (56.3%; +71.1 units) since 1991. Take the Massachusetts Minutemen as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 17.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

PLAY: COLORADO STATE +14

What does Colorado State do well? They take the ball away from their opponents. The Rams have 11 takeaways on the season.

Both teams are coming off a bye for Thursday night's game in San Marcos. Ksaan Farrar has taken over at quarterback, throwing for 344 yards at UTSA, and Jayden Brown is averaging 10 yards per carry.

Texas State is 3-2, but look at the some of the wins... North Texas and Incarnate Word. The Bobcats lost 31-26 to UTSA at home and 31-29 at San Diego State, and they have turned it over nine times on the season. Brad Jackson has 13 touchdown passes, but he has also thrown five interceptions.

That is a lot to lay with a team that gives it away like Texas State.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Backing the Bruins over the Badgers in the Rose Bowl. You can get (-2.5) in the marketplace, (-3) widely available. Bob Chesney's UCLA squad has looked spectacular out the gate this season. I will be in with more details on this wager later in the week.

10-0 (100%) College Football sides (+46% PROFIT).

(17-2) College Football overall (+63% PROFIT).

#1 Ranked All Sports Handicapper Overall L 365 Days (Return On Investment).

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Bulls pulled off a major upset at Toledo last week. They didn't just beat the Rockets, they dominated them. Toledo didn't score until there was less than five minutes remaining. The final score was 23-8. Consider that the Rockets had won nine straight at the Glass Bowl, outscoring opponents by an average of 48-13 in those nine wins. They entered the game with the top ranked offense in the MAC. Off that extremely impressive victory, I expect the Bulls to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game against UMass. The Minutemen are off a tough 1-point loss vs Miami Ohio. The Bulls won last season's game by seven points (28-21) and the out-gained the Minutemen by a 494-306 margin, in terms of total yards. The two previous meetings saw Buffalo win by scores of 34-3 and 34-7. The should be able to win by at least a touchdown, once again. *good up to -7

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago