College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets November 7

Don't look now, but La Tech is the hottest team in the Sun Belt, winner of five straight including recent back-to-back shutouts of Old Ominion and ULM. Sonny Cumbie has all of the pistons firing in Ruston, a typically creative offense now featuring QB Blake Baker's almost error-free performance (13 TDP & just 1 pick), and Cumbie is not afraid to mix things up (occasionaly with two QBs in the lineup) to take advantage of backup Trey Kukuk's running ability.

As for Troy, it's in contention for the Bipolar Team of the Year after becoming the first victim of ULM this season, then going out and winning at James Madison, those efforts after scoring 55 on Southern Miss, then blown out at Louisiana, as the erratic pattern has continued all season. Up-and-down QB Goose Crowder (shoulder) missed the JMU upset, which was led by backup Tucker Kilcrease, though he completed less than 50% of his throws; Crowder has a probable tag for Saturday. Play La Tech

Released/revised 47 minute(s) ago

🔥 26-8 (77%) College Football Overall (+75% PROFIT).

21-4 (84%) All CFB 3%+ Picks (+75% PROFIT).

Wagertalk's #1 Ranked College Football Handicapper L 2 Years (Return On Investment).

🚨 5% EARLY SATURDAY "MAX LIMIT" #1 CFB INSANE= (22-4) $$

I went into more detail on the video below…

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

(329) North Carolina at (330) Connecticut: Spread

North Carolina -7.5 (-111)

Billy Edwards Jr. has the passing-game advantage. UConn allows 249.1 passing yards per game. Its pass defense ranks 116th nationally. UNC has the receivers to exploit that weakness. 

The strength of schedule angle is very significant.

UNC #4 

UConn #128

SHARP $$$ UNC -6.5. Still think this is a double-digit victory for UNC.

Play: UNC -7.5

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

The fact that this line continues to drop is certainly worth noting. Now there are legit concerns here with a Minnesota offense averaging just 4.3 yards per play against fellow P4 teams. They've scored a total of just eight touchdowns in those six games! There's obviously not a lot of explosiveness with the Golden Gophers.

But in a game with a sub-40 point total, I'll always defer to taking the points. Especially with PJ Fleck now on a 6-0 ATS run as a home dog against Big 10 opponents! Already this season, Minnesota has upset Iowa & Michigan.

But the key trend here is that AP Top 7 teams laying single digits on the road against an unranked foe are just 1-5 ATS this season with three outright losses. (Ohio State lost outright in this spot last week). #5 UCLA may be 8-0 SU and ATS, but they're down to a backup QB and this game kicks off at 9 AM PT. Take the points.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Kansas State returns home off back-to-back road losses; they are 0-3 SU in away games this season.  However, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU at home, so we can expect their best effort in this game on Saturday.  Oklahoma State comes in off a wild 51-49 last second loss at Iowa State.  The Cowboys will be playing their 2nd straight road game, and their 3rd road game over their last 4 games overall.  This is a bad scheduling spot for them, especially since they are laying points.  Kansas State has also won 2 straight meetings, and 3 of the last 4 meetings overall.  Take the points with the live home underdog in this game on Saturday afternoon.

Play KANSAS STATE (+).

-------------------

Special Offers:
Weekend Warrior Football Special, every Saturday & Sunday NCAA + NFL Best Bet just $39 with promo code: STEVEWW
FREE Week (7 days) Premium Live Odds, Injuries, Scores: OddsLogic.com/SM

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Under the radar game worth a wager with one of the top teams in Conference USA hosting one of the worst teams in all of FBS college football has us laying the wood with Jacksonville State.

Jax State is a perfect (4-0) straight up and against the spread at home. Sam Houston State is a horrendous (0-7) on the season vs FBS competition. They have not scored a touchdown in 3 of their last 4 games. This one just missed the Saturday client card. The free pick is on Jacksonville State to win big.

🔥 22-4 (85%) All CFB 3%+ Picks (+78% PROFIT).

27-8 (78%) College Football Overall (+78% PROFIT).

Wagertalk's #1 Ranked College Football Handicapper L 2 Years (Return On Investment). 

5% EARLY SATURDAY "MAX LIMIT" #1 CFB INSANE= (22-4) $$

I went into more detail on the video below…

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Iowa State travels to Waco after a remarkable 51-49 victory over Oklahoma State, but that 100-point shootout creates a misleading perception of the Cyclones’ offensive ceiling. Underlying efficiency metrics point to a substantially different environment against Baylor, whose defense has been one of the strongest components of its statistical profile. The Bears allow only a 34.2% offensive success rate, ranking 11th nationally, and just 2.29 points per scoring opportunity, fifth nationally. Those metrics matter especially for an Under because they show Baylor has been effective not only at preventing sustained drives, but also at limiting touchdowns once opponents reach scoring territory.

The matchup becomes even more difficult for Iowa State through the air. Baylor allows only a 35.9% passing success rate, 6.3 yards per attempt, and negative-0.07 passing points per play. The Bears have also generated 34 sacks and forced 15 turnovers while surrendering only seven passing touchdowns. That profile presents a significant challenge for an Iowa State offense that ranks 89th nationally in passing success rate, 109th in passing yards, and 111th in overall offensive success rate at 39.0%. The Cyclones may have produced 51 points last week, but their season-long efficiency suggests that performance was well above their offensive baseline. Baylor’s pass rush is particularly relevant because pressure can create drive-killing plays that suppress scoring without necessarily generating turnovers. Sacks increase the likelihood of obvious passing situations, punts, and longer field-goal attempts, while quarterback pressure makes it harder for Iowa State to consistently generate the explosive completions needed to overcome poor down-to-down efficiency. Against a defense that can win early downs and create negative plays, the Cyclones should find it much harder to replicate last week’s scoring pace.

The rushing matchup provides little relief. Baylor is allowing only a 32.0% rushing success rate, ranking seventh nationally, with a negative-0.13 rushing PPA. Iowa State enters with just a 38.7% rushing success rate, meaning the Cyclones may struggle to lean on the ground game to stay ahead of the chains and neutralize Baylor’s pass rush. If Iowa State cannot consistently run efficiently on early downs, the offense becomes increasingly dependent on converting obvious passing situations against the strongest area of Baylor’s defense. Tempo should also help the Under. Iowa State operates at approximately 29.3 seconds per play, giving the Cyclones one of the more deliberate offensive profiles in the matchup. That approach reduces possession volume and becomes especially important if Baylor’s defense consistently forces Iowa State into longer drives.

Baylor’s faster pace of approximately 22.6 seconds per play represents the primary concern, but pace alone does not guarantee points. The Bears rank only 114th nationally in offensive success rate at 38.7%, including a 40.1% rushing success rate that ranks 104th. Baylor is also generating a relatively modest 3.39 points per scoring opportunity. Iowa State’s defense has vulnerabilities, but Baylor has not shown the down-to-down offensive efficiency needed to consistently turn additional possessions into touchdowns. That distinction is critical to the handicap. The Under does not require Iowa State’s defense to dominate. It requires the Cyclones to provide enough resistance against an inconsistent Baylor offense while the Bears’ defense pulls Iowa State significantly below last week’s extraordinary scoring output. With Baylor able to control the matchup defensively, the Bears have little reason to turn this game into a high-variance shootout if they establish an advantage.

My technical database further supports that regression thesis. Conference road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points, beginning with their fifth game of the season and playing with fewer than 10 days of rest, have produced a 296-228 Under record (56.5%) since 1989, generating +45.2 units and a 7.8% ROI. A broader version involving road teams following 50-plus-point home performances has gone 547-443 to the Under (55.3%), producing +59.7 units and a 5.5% ROI. Conference games involving a team coming off a contest in which it scored at least 30 points after its opponent scored more than 48 have gone 316-222 to the Under (58.7%), generating +71.8 units and a 12.1% ROI. These systems reinforce an important concept: extreme scoring performances can inflate expectations for the following game, particularly when the next opponent presents a materially stronger defensive challenge.

Baylor can disrupt the pass, win early downs, limit scoring opportunities, and force an inefficient Iowa State offense to sustain drives rather than relying on last week’s unusually productive scoring environment. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 7.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

Georgia Southern is 7-1 ATS this season. The only spread loss was by a half-point as a road underdog. At home? 4-0 ATS.

Marshall is in one of my favorite "fade" spots. The Herd beat Old Dominion by 13 points last weekend despite being outgained by 71 total yards and being -0.8 in yards-per-play margin. Marshall benefited from a +3 turnover margin. I love fading teams coming off misleading wins like that one.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE (H/T StatSharp):

Play ON home teams that have played at least 7 games and are averaging 5.6-6.2 yards per play if they outgained their last two opponents by at least 125 total yards, and their opponent is allowing at least 6.2 yards per play. Applies to Georgia Southern. 25-4 ATS (86%) since the 1992 season, covering the spread by an average of 12.2 points!

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Taking Texas over Missouri laying the short number. The Longhorns have bounced back nicely the last couple weeks. This one not going to make the client card- Talked this bet on the clip below.

21-4 (84%) All CFB 3%+ Picks (+75% PROFIT).

14-2 (88%) Thursday Run (+33% PROFIT).

Wagertalk's #1 Ranked College Football Handicapper L 2 Years (Return On Investment).

🚨 5% "MAX LIMIT" BEST BET #1 CFB INSANE= (21-4) $$

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Take Utah (#370)

The Daily Double video below offers Free Play opinions for UCLA – Minnesota and BYU – Utah in early start action on Saturday.  Here’s a brief write-up for BYU -Utah

The Cougars are on an 0-2 ATS slide since beating Notre Dame.  They lost outright at UCF and got tested at home last week by Arizona State, never sniffing a pointspread cover.  While Bear Bachmeier is an elite collegiate QB, the skill position talent surrounding him just hasn’t been able to create big plays against the better defenses that they’ve faced.  Expect that to be problematic against a quality Utah defense and a Utes offense that has the skill position speed that BYU lacks.  Take the Utes.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

PLAY: Minnesota +5.5

Is there a better coach in the country as an underdog than PJ Fleck? Minnesota beat Washington 27-24 as a 12-point dog for us, then took down Michigan 20-14 and Iowa 13-10 at home, where we were on them again. Last week the Gophers had No. 4 Indiana beat with 19 seconds left after Luke Drzewiecki hit a 60-yard field goal for a 16-13 lead. Indiana tied it with its own 60-yarder at the gun and won in overtime as a 20.5-point favorite.

Yes, UCLA is 8-0 AND 8-0 ATS. Not wanting to step in front of that is understandable. This defense is legit: 7 points a game allowed over the last five. But this is a different offense without Nico Iamaleava, who is done for the year after knee surgery. Ty Dieffenbach, the Cal Poly transfer, has thrown three TD passes in four games, and UCLA has scored 17, 28 and 27 the last three weeks. This is the Bruins' first road game since October 10.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

(411) Kentucky at (412) Tennessee: 1Q Total

1Q Total Under 9.5 (109)

My thoughts on Kentucky/Tennesse under 1Q & 1H from the Best Damn B

tting Show on Wednesday

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Rutgers enters Saturday’s Big Ten matchup as a substantial road underdog, but the number appears aggressive for a Wisconsin team whose defense has been substantially better than its offense. The Badgers are 5-3 but enter off a 30-0 loss at Iowa, while Rutgers was considerably more competitive in a 28-21 loss to Michigan. Wisconsin deserves to be favored, especially at home, but covering 15.5 requires the Badgers to win by at least 16 points with an offense that has struggled to sustain and finish possessions consistently. The Badgers rank 37th overall with a 9.0 rating and 15th defensively at 18.0, but their offensive rating is -0.7, ranking 74th. Wisconsin’s efficiency metrics are even less encouraging, with the Badgers generating only a 38.7% offensive success rate, ranking 115th nationally, while averaging just 3.20 points per scoring opportunity and a 37.5% rushing success rate. Wisconsin’s 30-0 loss to Iowa exposed those limitations, as starting quarterback Colton Joseph was eventually replaced by freshman Ryan Hopkins, who completed 8 of 13 passes for 93 yards with an interception. Joseph has otherwise produced 1,346 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 371 rushing yards and four scores, but his struggles against Iowa highlighted the volatility of an offense that has not consistently created separation.

The most appealing element of the Rutgers offense is its ability to create explosive plays. The Scarlet Knights rank ninth nationally in overall explosiveness and fourth in passing explosiveness while averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 17 passing touchdowns. That big-play ability is particularly valuable for a substantial underdog because Rutgers does not need to consistently manufacture long scoring drives against Wisconsin’s defense. One or two explosive completions can flip field position, generate quick points, and dramatically change the margin required from a Wisconsin offense that has struggled to sustain efficiency. Rutgers remained within one possession of Michigan despite completing only three passes, losing 28-21. Adding a more functional passing component would increase the Scarlet Knights’ ability to capitalize on their season-long explosiveness and create the handful of scoring possessions they may need to stay inside this number.

The projected pace also favors the underdog. Rutgers averages approximately 28.4 seconds per play compared with 28.9 for Wisconsin, so neither team is likely to maximize possession volume. That style benefits Wisconsin from a straight-up perspective because its defense can control the game and reduce variance, but it works against the Badgers from a point-spread standpoint. The Scarlet Knights’ 2-6 record puts them in an uncomfortable spot, and their season includes several poor performances. However, Rutgers has also shown it can stay competitive against quality opponents, losing 42-35 to USC, winning 37-30 at Maryland, and staying within seven points of Michigan. Wisconsin presents a different challenge because the Badgers have been built primarily around defense and game control rather than an explosive offense that can quickly turn a one-possession game into a blowout. Ultimately, this investment is predicated on the price, Wisconsin’s offensive limitations, and the expected low-possession environment.

My technical database provides additional support for Rutgers:

• Play On: Road teams facing opponents that were shut out in their previous game are 274-219 ATS (55.6%) since 1993, generating +33.1 units and a +6.1% ROI;

• Play On: Road teams with seven or fewer days of rest facing opponents coming off a shutout loss are 176-119 ATS (59.7%) since 1999, generating +45.1 units and a +13.9% ROI;

• Play Against: Home favorites coming off games in which they scored fewer than ten points are 409-317 ATS (56.3%) for bettors fading those favorites since 2004, generating +60.3 units and a +7.5% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of at least three points in games with totals below 46 are 493-361 ATS (57.7%) since 2000, generating +95.9 units and a +10.2% ROI;

• Play On: Conference underdogs of 6 to 24 points in games with totals between 37 and 46 during the first 12 weeks of the season, vs. opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs, are 328-210 ATS (61.0%) since 1989, generating +97.0 units and a +16.4% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of 6 to 20.5 points in games with totals between 40.5 and 47.5 during weeks 4-12 vs. opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs are 332-244 ATS (57.6%) since 1989, generating +63.6 units and a +10.0% ROI.

Ultimately, the value lies in the relationship between Wisconsin’s strengths and the spread size. The Badgers are clearly the better defensive team and deserve to be favored, but their underlying offensive efficiency makes laying more than two touchdowns difficult to justify. Rutgers possesses enough explosiveness to manufacture points without consistently sustaining drives, while the deliberate pace and low total should reduce Wisconsin’s opportunities to build a margin. Take Rutgers as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 7.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

App State has won each of the last 12 meetings in this Sun Belt series. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, including a 41-20 road win at Georgia State last week. We've successfully played against the Panthers each of the last three weeks, and we're not getting off that train this week. It's been a rinse-and-repeat formula for Georgia State. We don't want to take anything away from what the Panthers have accomplished thus far, because clearing your projected season win total by the first week of October is still something to celebrate, no matter who you are. But with all due respect to Georgia State, wins over North Carolina A&T, Kennesaw State, Northern Illinois and Old Dominion aren't moving the needle for us. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-26 this season. Over the last three weeks against James Madison, Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, the Panthers have fallen short of point spread expectations by an average of 14.2 points per game. Throw in a 14-point loss to UCF earlier this season, and the Panthers haven't come close to beating a half-decent team this year. The final score of last week's 31-20 loss to Coastal Carolina looks respectable, but that was a 31-6 game in the third quarter before the Chanticleers put things on cruise control for the final minutes. Georgia State's defense forced three turnovers but the Panthers' offense couldn't do anything with the extra possessions. Play App State

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Based on some early-week content that we have consumed this week, there is likely going to be some back-and-forth action on this game. Those looking to back UConn will point to North Carolina's schedule and the presumed let-down spot after the Tar Heels lost back-to-back games against Syracuse and Miami (Fla) by a total of four points. Add those to weather-related losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, and North Carolina has been snakebitten for large stretches of the season. We're not ready to buy into that narrative just yet. There's about ten programs in the country where you can ignore "letdown spot" narratives (i.e. the military academies), and a Bill Belichick-coached team is probably one of them. You think the guy that has over 300 wins in the NFL is going to let his team have a let-down spot? Especially in the northeast where he's still got quite a following? Don't forget, the Tar Heels didn't make a bowl game last season, so simply reaching six wins and going to a bowl game is still a goal for this team. Realistically, how much can you downgrade North Carolina after these recent losses? They certainly stung, but the Tar Heels have covered the spread in four of the last five games. So you can't downgrade UNC from a power ratings perspective, because they've actually overperformed expectations. The team that fell short of expectations last week is UConn, who couldn't beat Air Force with an ex-linebacker playing quarterback that didn't complete a pass. The Huskies just played at altitude in the Mountain Time Zone and had to defend 74 Air Force rushing plays. We'll make the argument that UConn is the team on letdown alert this week, not North Carolina.
Play North Carolina

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on MIN (Outright).

UCLA is still undefeated, and 8-0 ATS. They are down to a backup QB, and this game at Minnesota will be his first start on the road. Traveling east for BIG10 road games has been a death sentence for former PAC12 teams. Minnesota already has wins over Iowa and Michigan at home. Last week they went to overtime in a road game at Indiana, but came up short. The Gophers are only allowing opponents to average 15 points per game at home. I'll take the home dog to win outright.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Two of the nation’s top teams square off in Baton Rouge Saturday as the great rivalry between Alabama and LSU gives us another chapter. With both teams having 2 losses, the implications are enormous, and LSU has not looked impressive when asked to step up in class. Already with losses over Ole Miss and Kentucky, the Tigers have yet to beat an elite opponent. We know that quarterback Sam Leavitt is turnover prone, and that’s bad news against a defense like Alabama has. Keelon Russell has been great for the Tide and we’ll put over a field goal in our pocket as they make a statement in Death Valley. Take Alabama.

100% (3-0) CFB BEST BET RUN! (4% or higher)

87.5% (7-1) CFB BEST BET RUN! (4% or higher)

70% (7-3) NFL RUN!

26-16 TOP PLAY RUN! (5%)

DON’T MISS JIMMY’S 5% COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP PLAY ON SATURDAY!

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago