Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Indiana Pacers Total Under 110.5 (-115)

Indiana’s offensive outburst in Game 1 was built on unsustainable shooting that’s due for regression. The Pacers launched 36 triples and hit at a 52.8 percent clip—well above their 38.9 percent season mark—and finished at 53 percent from the floor versus a 48.8 percent seasonal average. Those extra makes inflated their 121 points in Game 1; a return to their true shooting levels would shave nearly 15 points off that total, putting them squarely under 110.5.

Cleveland’s stingy defense is another major hurdle for Indiana’s scoring. The Cavs rank ninth in defensive rating and held the Pacers to 48 percent shooting in their two regular‑season home matchups. After being flummoxed from deep once, expect the Cavs to tighten rotations, contest shots more aggressively, and force Indiana into tougher looks.

Even with Garland, Hunter, and Mobley questionable, I think the Cavs have the personnel to limit the Pacers here. If Garland or Mobley get ruled in, I would think this team total would go down putting us in good position. 

Finally, the home‑court bounce‑back factor looms large. Cleveland will bring amplified urgency following an upset loss, ramping up defensive intensity and pace control to stifle Indiana’s rhythm. With Game 1’s hot shooting set to cool off, backing the Pacers’ team total under 110.5 offers a clear, data‑driven edge.