The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Total Over 46.5 (-110)

We used this strategy multiple times last week across both the NFL and college football slate with a nice amount of success: Take a good offense that normally plays outdoors, put them in a dome in December and watch what happens. Green Bay scored 31 points on 6.6 yards per play in Detroit. Seattle scored 30 points on 6.7 yards per play in Arizona. Buffalo scored 42 points on 8.2 yards per play in Los Angeles. Cincinnati scored 27 points on 6.7 yards per play in Dallas. Miami is a little different because the Dolphins have mostly been playing in favorable conditions (aside from that trip to Green Bay two weeks ago), but any time that we can get a moderately-priced total in the mid-40s involving the Dolphins in good health in a dome, we're going to be interested. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, the Dolphins are averaging 27.7 points per game. Since Week 8, Miami's offense is No. 3 in EPA per play, No. 1 in success rate, No. 1 in EPA per pass attempt and No. 1 in passing success rate. The Dolphins' defense is No. 24 in passing success rate allowed. CJ Stroud and the Texans' offense are coming off a bye. Nico Collins had eight catches for 119 yards against the Jaguars prior to the bye week. Since his return from injury, Houston's offense has shown signs of life. The Jets generated 402 total yards on 6.4 yards per play against the Dolphins' defense last week. Houston is certainly capable of doing the same.