Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Over 2.75 (-123)

NAC Breda vs Emmen
Netherlands, Tuesday, 2pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -123
Line Parameter: Playable to -135, if odds lower than -135 take the Over 3 instead

Breda are coming off two high-scoring playoff matches against Roda, with 4 goals in the first leg and 5 goals in the second leg, they won both and are now one step closer to qualifying to the top division. They will host Emmen, who eliminated Dordrecht (2-2 at home, 1-0 on the road). We are looking at goals here, as both teams fit the profile.

Breda went 23-15 to the Over 2.5 Goals in the regular season, with an average of 3.1 goals/match. They were 12-7 to the Over 2.5 goals at home, with an average of 2.9 goals/match. Breda are on a 7-3 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 6 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. At home, they are on a 7-2 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 5 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. Both their playoff matches in the previous round had Over 3.5 goals. 

Emmen were 24-14 to the Over 2.5 Goals in the regular season, with an average of 3.1 goals/match. They were 14-5 to the Over 2.5 goals on the road, with an average of 3.3 goals/match. Emmen are on a 10-1 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 6 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. On the road, they are on an 11-2 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 5 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. 

The two teams exchanged away wins in the regular season, with Emmen beating Breda in this venue by 3-1 but losing at home by 3-2, thus confirming the Over 3.5 Goals in both matches. In H2H matches in this venue over the last decade: 7-0 run to the Both Teams to Score, and 6-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals, with 4 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. 

This is a crucial match for the promotion, and things could get squeaky, but we got two teams with strong tendencies to the Over, and a small-stake bet on the Over is definitely worth it. 

Take 1u on the Over 2.75 Goals (-123), which is a split line between Over 2.5 Goals and Over 3 Goals. The Asian Total is starting to move towards 3 Goals, so you can pivot to the Over 3 if you can't find the Over 2.75 Goals (but with a chance of a Push if this match finishes with exactly 3 goals). 

THE PLAY: REGULATION Bologna 0.0 (-120)

Bologna vs Juventus
Serie A, Monday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Bologna PK
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

The two teams are tied for 67 points and they have both clinched a ticket to next season's Champions League, no matter what happens in the last two matches of the season. Bologna are having a tremendous season so far, the best they've had in years, and that's mainly due to the resurgence of two players: Dutch forward Zirkzee (11G & 4A) and Italian winger Ricardo Orsolini (10G & 2A). But here's the thing: Zirkzee was omitted from the Netherlands team that will go to the EURO in June, and Orsolini is still not confirmed to play for Italy (a team that could really use his skillset). 

Right off the bat, both players (who, again, have been the focal points of Bologna's success this season) will look to redeem themselves. Zirkzee is injured and unavailable, but as for Orsolini, Italy's coach Spaletti still hasn't finalized his squad, and there's still 3 places left, so he will definitely look to shine in order to increase his chances for a call-up. 

After all, Bologna are on an 8-match unbeaten streak (W4 D4 L0) and they've only lost to champions Inter Milan since late January (W10 D4 L1). Extremely strong at home this season, with the 2nd best record (W12 D4 L2) and the BEST home defense with just 9 conceded goals. 

Juventus are coming off a win in the Coppa Italia final against Atalanta, in a match that was highlighted by coach Alegri's antics in the sidelines, that prompted his dismissal from the club. Now under Paolo Montero, Juventus will just see off the season, and they also have to deal with a potential hangover from winning the Cup. That win was their first after a 6-match win-less streak, and it seems like Juventus have very little gas left in the tank. 

Bologna have a pretty bad recent record against Juventus, having not won any of the last 23 Serie A matches (W0 D6 L17). However, ALL streaks must come to an end, and Bologna are definitely having the BEST season they've had in ages, probably ever, while Juventus have been underperforming for the entire 2nd round. 

Take 1u on Bologna PK (-120)