Nick Borrman

THE PLAY: Roma +0.5 (-115)

Italy Serie A

(201365) AS Roma at (201366) Napoli

Bologna was always going to be a tough spot for Roma in a letdown situation after knocking out Milan in the Europa League just four days prior, so I’m not putting too much stock into that loss.  Otherwise, all signs point to taking Roma on the DC for me.

Since De Rossi took over, it’s been almost all positive results for this side.  They had a loss to Inter, totally understandable, a Europa League loss to Brighton in Leg 2 after building a four goal lead, so who cares, then that Bologna loss.  Otherwise, they have won or drawn all their other 14 matches including beating Lazio, Brighton and Milan twice.  

Meanwhile, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Napoli has struggled tremendously against good teams this year.  Their win over Juventus at the beginning of March was just their 2nd win against a Top-10 side this season as they also beat Atalanta way back in November.

Aside from those two, they have lost or drawn their other 14 matches against the top half of the table.  Remarkably poor, and I certainly can’t trust them laying -0.5 here.

Even at home this season, they have only six Serie A wins, five of those coming against teams ranked 14th or lower in the table with the lone exception being a win over Juventus.  They have kept just two clean sheets at home.  Again, remarkably poor.

Simply don’t trust betting a side that has been so poor against quality teams and has struggled defensively, so I can only look one way here and that’s Roma on the DC.

TAKE ROMA +0.5 (Double Chance)

Line Parameter: Play good to -130