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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Cincinnati Reds

Event:
(905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Cincinnati Reds
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 8, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – (905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Cincinnati Reds Total Under 9.0 (-110) B Brown (RHP), A Abbott (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

4:10 PM ET -- MLB 

905 Chicago Cubs 
906 Cincinnati Reds  

Play: UNDER 9 -110

List Pitchers: Brown & Abbott      

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 9 or better
3% play at 8.5
2% play at 8

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play UNDER on Saturdays with home teams with a win percentage between 46% and 49% if the total is between 8.5 and 10 and their opponent has a losing record.  26-6-1 (81.25%) in the 2020-2024 seasons.

The UNDER is 11-2-1 when Andrew Abbott starts at home against opponents that strike out an average of at least 7 times a game. 

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