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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(921) Minnesota Twins at (922) Pittsburgh Pirates

Event:
(921) Minnesota Twins at (922) Pittsburgh Pirates
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 8, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-115
Play:
3% – (921) Minnesota Twins at (922) Pittsburgh Pirates Total Over 9.0 (-115) S Woods Richardson (RHP), C Mlodzinski (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

4:05 PM ET -- MLB 

921 Minnesota Twins   
922 Pittsburgh Pirates

Play: OVER 9 -115  

List Pitchers: Woods-Richardson & Mlodzinski              

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters: 
3% play at 9 or better
2% play at 9.5

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play OVER in Game 2 of a series with a home underdog that won Game 1 as an underdog if their win percentage is higher than 40% and their opponent's win percentage is below 60%.  30-15-1 (67%) in the 2023-2024 seasons.

The OVER is 10-2-1 in the 2023-2024 seasons when the Pirates play at home after a game in which 3 or fewer total runs were scored.

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