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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(975) Cleveland Guardians at (976) Miami Marlins

Event:
(975) Cleveland Guardians at (976) Miami Marlins
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 7, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-120
Play:
4% – (975) Cleveland Guardians at (976) Miami Marlins Total Under 8.0 (-120) L Allen (LHP), R Weathers (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

7:10 PM ET -- MLB 

975 Cleveland Guardians  
976 Miami Marlins

Play: UNDER 8 -120

List Pitchers: Allen & Weathers            

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 8 or better
3% play at 7.5
2% play at 7

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play UNDER on NL home teams that are allowing an average of at least 4.5 runs per game on the season if they're facing an opposing starter that allowed at least 7 runs in his previous start.  44-14-4 (76%) since 2020.

Play UNDER in the fist game of a series if the team lost its last game, they went under the total in their starter's previous start, they're averaging more than 7.54 hits per game on the season, and they're either on the road off a road game or at home off a home game.  39-6 (87%) since 4/9/2024.

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