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Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin

(957) New York Mets at (958) Washington Nationals

(957) New York Mets at (958) Washington Nationals
June 5, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
3% – 1H New York Mets -0.5 (-120) L Severino (RHP), P Corbin (LHP) Must Start

It's Parick Corbin day so another opportunity to try and beat the very mediocre Nationals southpaw. His data remains at the very bottom of the SP rankings in several categories and the Nats usually lose when he takes the ball. Severino for the Mets is a mixed bag. He sits 3-2 with a mid-3 ERA which is pretty good. But the awful Mets pen has been at its worst when he goes, so the team record in his starts is only 4-7, including 0-4 on the road. So you can see why I cannot go more than 3% risk here. But with the team offensive data, both season to date and recency, clearly favoring the Mets and that pretty huge xWOBA advantage (+.086) for Severino over Corbin, this is a Mets bet. That NYM pen is atrocious so I'll just go the F5. I'm willing to risk the -0.5 to save about half a dollar so Mets F5 -0.5 is the wager for me.

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