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Jeff Michaels

Jeff Michaels

(923) Atlanta Braves at (924) Boston Red Sox

Event:
(923) Atlanta Braves at (924) Boston Red Sox
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 4, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-108
Play:
3% – (923) Atlanta Braves at (924) Boston Red Sox Total Under 8.0 (-108) M Fried (LHP), K Crawford (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% Boston Red Sox & Atlanta Braves UNDER 8 — w/ Crawford & Fried — 

13 OUT OF THE LAST 14! That is how many games the Atlanta Braves have stayed UNDER the total on the road against RHP! No one in the MLB has a more lopsided OU% vs. RHP than the Atlanta Braves, going 9-27-2 OU vs. righties this season!

Boston may be facing a lefty w/ Fried on the mound, but they aren’t far behind the a 5-10-1 OU record vs. LHP TY, the 3rd highest percentage to the UNDER vs. LHP in the MLB. 

Three other striking similarities … 

  1. Starting Pitching
    1. Max Fried has a sub-3.00 ERA on the year, including a 1.69 ERA in his L3 starts and a 0.878 WHIP on the road! Plus, he has stayed under the total in 7 of his L8 starts. 
    2. Kutter Crawford has continued to be impressive, while he has kept the game UNDER the total in 6 of his L8 starts, including 3 straight @ H … Boston hasn’t given him much support putting up just 10 runs in his L5 starts combined, benefiting us here. 
  2. OU Record in First Game of the Series (FGS)
    1. These two teams are a combined 6-21 OU in their L27 FGS on the year (BOS = 4-11 ; ATL = 2-10)!! On top of it, Atlanta has stayed under in 5 of the L6 on the road, while Boston has stayed under in 7 of the L8 @ H, including 5 straight series openers in Fenway. 
  3. OU Record in Interleague
    1. Atlanta = 2-15 OU vs. American League
    2. Boston = 6-13 OU vs. National League

Atlanta is also just 1-12 OU vs. AL teams hitting ≤ .260 on the season, holding them under 3 runs/game and 5-17 OU on the season after they allow ≤ 2 runs in the previous game. 

The final thing that really stood out to me is the fact that these two teams have stayed UNDER in their L5 H2H meetings, putting up less than 7 runs combined on average during that span! 

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