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Jeff Michaels

Jeff Michaels

(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Philadelphia Phillies

Event:
(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 2, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-130
Play:
4% – Philadelphia Phillies -130 L Lynn (RHP), T Walker (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

4% Philadelphia Phillies (-130) over St. Louis — w/ Lynn & Walker — 

Philadelphia is going for their MLB leading 8th sweep of the season! This is already the 12th series that they have had the opportunity to sweep this year, and they have closed on 7 of the 11 so far! Yet even more impressively, the Phillies are 6-1 TY vs. RHP when going for a sweep!!  St. Louis has struggled in the LGS all year, they have an MLB-worst 27.8% win% in the final game of the series (5-13). This is just the 4th time they have had to look to avoid the sweep, but they have already been swept twice this season in those 3 previous instances. As well as being just 1-3 in the LGS @ NGT.

When you looking at the SP’s in this matchup, Walker has a slew of impressive trends that go well beyond this season that I have tailed before … (team records in Walker starts): 

  • 18-5 in L2Y vs. teams < .500 
  • 17-4 @ NGT in the L2Y 
  • 17-5 as a F of (-110) or HIGHER in the L2Y

As for Lance Lynn, he has had a couple quality starts as of late, but his history as a dog this season is less than convincing. St. Louis has lost 4 straight Lynn starts as a DOG. They aren’t just losing those games, but they are getting blown out, losing by 3.5 runs/game on average! Not to mention, this is already Lynn’s 2nd time facing Philly this year. 6 pitchers have already faced Philly twice this season, with 4 of those pitchers being forced to make their 2nd start IN Philly … those 4 pitchers all lost their 2nd start!

Philly is a team that adapts as well as anybody, and having an idea of what kind of pitching is coming into your home ballpark is a huge advantage for these Phillies. Philadelphia is 4-1 TY vs. RHP after holding the same team to 1 run or less and they are an impressive 19-2 vs. SP’s allowing ≤ 5.5 hits/start TY. 

St. Louis is just 2-7 TY as an AD of (+115) or MORE vs. teams outside their division and just 1-5 off a L by 5+ runs when playing the same team in the same series. 

Last but not least, the history between these two teams is VERY one-sided. In the L3Y Philadelphia is 6-1 @ H vs. St. Louis … but when you look back even further the Phillies have dominated St. Louis’ RHP’s for YEARS! The Phillies are 18-6 in the L24 games vs. St. Louis RHP’s, including 7 STRAIGHT W’s @ H! (winning those 7 games by nearly 5 runs/game). 

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