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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(957) Colorado Rockies at (958) Los Angeles Dodgers

Event:
(957) Colorado Rockies at (958) Los Angeles Dodgers
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 1, 2024 10PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-115
Play:
4% – (957) Colorado Rockies at (958) Los Angeles Dodgers Total Under 7.5 (-115) C Quantrill (RHP), Y Yamamoto (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

10:10 PM ET -- MLB 

957 Colorado Rockies 
958 Los Angeles Dodgers

Play: UNDER 7.5 -115

List Pitchers: Quantrill & Yamamoto      

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 7.5 or better
3% play at 7

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play UNDER on road underdogs that are starting a pitcher whose per-start ERA has dropped in four straight starts.  28-8-1 (77.8%) since 2023.

The UNDER is 11-1 in Cal Quantrill's career when he faces a team that is outscoring its opponents by an average of between .89 and 1.6 runs per game on the season.

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