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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(519) Minnesota Timberwolves at (520) Denver Nuggets

Event:
(519) Minnesota Timberwolves at (520) Denver Nuggets
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
May 14, 2024 10PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – (519) Minnesota Timberwolves at (520) Denver Nuggets Total Over 206.0 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

Just when critics were writing off the defending NBA Champions, Denver stormed back on the road to tie this series up with the Timberwolves at two games apiece. The Nuggets have reclaimed home court advantage with Game 5 at Ball Arena tonight, but the road team has won each of the first four games in this Western Conference clash. While battling a calf injury last week, Jamal Murray has picked up his play over the past couple games. After shooting 28-percent at home in Games 1 and 2, Murray shot 50-percent from the floor on the road in Games 3 and 4. Aaron Gordon has been the x-factor for the Nuggets, not only playing stellar defense but now shooting over 71-percent from the floor after an 11-for-12 effort in Game 4. Conventional wisdom in the NBA Playoffs suggests that totals should go down as the series goes deeper. Each defense has a better feel for what the opposing offense is trying to do. Games get slower. Games get tighter. Totals should drop. That hasn't been the case with the Nuggets over the last two seasons. Take a look back at the last three games of Denver's last five playoff series (2023 against Minnesota, 2023 against Phoenix, 2023 against Los Angeles, 2023 against Miami and 2024 against Los Angeles). In those 15 games, the Nuggets scored at least 108 points 14 times. They averaged 112.4 points per game, and the only game where they didn't hit the 108-point mark was in the championship-clinching victory over the Heat. Whereas most teams get better on defense as a series goes on, the Nuggets' offense is the unit that gets better. Aside from Anthony Edwards, no Timberwolves' player scored more than 15 points in Game 4. We don’t think will be the case tonight. There is too much offensive talent on the floor for this total to be sitting at 206.

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