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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Milwaukee Brewers

Event:
(905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Milwaukee Brewers
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 13, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
101
Play:
3% – (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Milwaukee Brewers Total Over 8.5 (+101) M Keller (RHP), C Rea (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

There is blow-up potential on both sides of this game. Milwaukee's Colin Rea enters Monday with a 3-0 record and a 3.29 ERA. Looks good, right? Not so fast. He's in the bottom-15th percentile among pitchers in expected ERA, expected batting average, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and barrel rate. His 15.1-percent strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. His expected ERA (5.77) is about 2.5 runs higher than his actual ERA (3.29). On the other side, the Brewers' lineup has enjoyed a lot of success against Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller. Milwaukee's current roster is hitting .333 in 82 plate appearances against Keller with a .432 weighted on-base average. Rhys Hoskins is 5-for-8 with two doubles and a triple. William Contreras is 3-for-10 with two home runs. If Keller gets into trouble, the Pirates are going to struggle to finish this game. Rain cut Paul Skenes' MLB debut short on Saturday, forcing Pittsburgh to use six relievers to throw 115 pitches. David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman and Kyle Nicolas each pitched on Saturday and Sunday, so that trio is likely unavailable out of the bullpen tonight. Luis Ortiz threw 35 pitches yesterday against the Cubs, so he's likely unavailable today. Milwaukee tagged Keller for four runs on six hits with two walks in 5.0 innings less than three weeks ago. 

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