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Scott Rickenbach

Scott Rickenbach

(515) Oklahoma City Thunder at (516) Dallas Mavericks

Event:
(515) Oklahoma City Thunder at (516) Dallas Mavericks
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
May 13, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – (515) Oklahoma City Thunder at (516) Dallas Mavericks Total Over 213.0 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

4* Rotation #515: NBA Monday 4* OVER 213 in Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 9:30 ET - The Thunder have lost B2B games and I expect an aggressive effort here on the road in Game 4. However, the Mavericks shot poorly from the 3 point line and also below average from the field including from 3 point land yet Dallas put up 105 points in Game 3. The point is, based on the pace of play we saw from the Mavs in Game 3, there should have been a lot more points scored. The fact there was not has led to line value here in Game 4 as the total has dropped down into the 213 range. Dallas has won 4 of last 5 games and averaged 115 ppg in the 4 wins. The Thunder had won 4 of 5 games before the road loss in Game 3 and OKC had averaged 111 ppg in those 5 games. The point is that expecting each team to get into at least the 110 range here is truly not a big ask and yet we have a lower posted total here than what we saw in Game 3. Yes, Doncic is again listed as questionable here but this was the case before Game 3 yet he still played and scored 22 points and had 15 rebounds. It was not one of his best games for sure but remember after a sub-par Game 1 he bounced back with a huge Game 2. That game was a 119-110 Dallas win and I would not be surprised to see a similar result here as Doncic bounces back again with a big performance. Either way, I do like the over here and expect a huge game from OKC having lost two straight but also the Mavs come up huge on their home floor looking to get a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. The result is an aggressive attacking style on the offensive end in Game 4. Holmgren had 4 blocks in Game 3 but had just 5 blocks total in his 3 playoff games preceding that. SGA had 5 blocks in Game 3 for OKC but had just 7 blocks in his first 6 games of the post-season. The point is we saw some unusual stats in Game 3 that I do not expect to be repeated in Game 4 and, given the situation, I am projecting a back and forth high-scoring affair. 4* OVER 213 in Dallas

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