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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(925) Arizona Diamondbacks at (926) Baltimore Orioles

Event:
(925) Arizona Diamondbacks at (926) Baltimore Orioles
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 11, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-138
Play:
4% – Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138) R Nelson (RHP), J Means (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

Full disclosure if I was running better and the price was better this would be a no brainer 5% play.  Excellent 2-0 day yesterday so lets try to build on that but the -138 price tag is such that I can only play this for 4% (so the risk stays in line with what I would typically risk on a 5% MAX (it's about a 5.5 unit risk which is what we would risk on a 5% against -110).

I was on the wrong side of a John Means masterclass last weekend but I don't think that's going to happen again.  I don't think Means is as bad as he looked for much of his rehab month in Norfolk but I also don't think he's a guy that's going out there and firing 7 scoreless very often either.  

Ryne Nelson is a guy I've always been higher on than most, he missed a start after being hit by a line drive but this will be his second start back and I expect a competitive effort from him here.  If the Diamondbacks hit Means like I think they can they probably win this game but I'll go the more conservative route and take the run head start.

Play on Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138) for 4% (or 4 units)

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