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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(505) Oklahoma City Thunder at (506) Dallas Mavericks: Daniel Gafford Points + Rebounds + Assists

Event:
(505) Oklahoma City Thunder at (506) Dallas Mavericks: Daniel Gafford Points + Rebounds + Assists
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
May 11, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-118
Play:
2% – Daniel Gafford Points + Rebounds + Assists Over 20.5 (-118)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Entering this Western Conference semifinal, the biggest question was: Will Dallas get enough complementary help from its role players to help Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic? After a 119-110 road win in Game 2, the answer appears to be a resounding "Yes!" Seven Mavericks scored at least nine points, led by 29 points from PJ Washington. The veteran sharp-shooter was 7-of-11 from three-point range while also securing 11 rebounds. His production was needed because Irving only scored nine points on 2-of-8 shooting. Much like the Cavaliers tonight, we're interested in backing the home team because of how much a rowdy crowd can impact those reserve minutes. Players like Doncic, Irving and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are going to enjoy success no matter where they play. But Dallas' reserve unit was dominant on the road on Thursday and that could be the difference once again on Saturday. Josh Giddey had a plus/minus of -20 in less than 11 minutes of action in Game 2. His 10:46 on the court was the fewest minutes that he's played in any game this season. Oklahoma City is now facing adversity for the first time in quite a while. Thursday's loss was the first in Oklahoma City's last 11 games as they ended the regular season on a five-game win streak then won their first five playoff games (all with relative ease). We're interested in backing Dallas at home in Game 3, and we're also interested in backing one of those complementary pieces in the player prop market. Daniel Gafford's points + assists + rebounds mark has opened at 20.5 and that's a mark that he's cleared in all four meetings with Oklahoma City this season (28, 29, 35 and 22). He's done that while only averaging 24 minutes per game. As we mentioned above, Oklahoma City has some concerns with its rotation. Giddey struggles to make open shots, and Chet Holmgren isn't big or strong enough to contend with Gafford on the post. Gafford and Derek Lively II often battle for minutes in the Mavericks' rotation, but with Doncic struggling with a knee injury, Dallas appears to be giving a nod toward Gafford's ability on offense over Lively's strength on defense. Based on his prior numbers, Gafford probably only needs to play somewhere in the neighborhood of 19 minutes in order to hit his prop projections on Saturday.

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