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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(953) Atlanta Braves at (954) New York Mets

Event:
(953) Atlanta Braves at (954) New York Mets
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 10, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
100
Play:
3% – (953) Atlanta Braves at (954) New York Mets 1H Total Over 4.5 (+100) C Morton (RHP), J Quintana (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

If you see a o4 (-125), that would be our preference. At the time of posting, that play is available at a couple 'books but we'll opt for the widely-available o4.5 at even-money.

Both starting pitchers have blow-up potential, and all it really takes is one of them to have a bad night to send a first five over the total. New York's Jose Quintana got a bad shake this week because he was supposed to start Wednesday's game against the struggling Cardinals. That got postponed, and Quintana now has to shift from facing a last-place team to arguably the best lineup in baseball (while on an unusual schedule since he thought he was going to pitch two days ago). Atlanta's current roster is hitting .270 in 179 plate appearances against Quintana with a .352 weighted on-base average. Marcell Ozuna is 11-for-24 with two doubles and a home run. Adam Duvall is 4-for-10 with two home runs and five walks. In his last start, Quintana gave up eight runs on ten hits in 2.2 innings against the Rays. Atlanta tagged him for three runs on five hits and two walks on April 11. At 40-years-old, Charlie Morton continues to be a reliable arm in the Braves' rotation, but he's not missing many bats. His current 22.9-percent strikeout rate is the lowest since 2015, down from 25.6-percent last year and 28.2-percent in 2022. He posted the highest walk rate of his career last season, and he's closing in on that number this year. In his April 8 start against the Mets, Morton issued five walks while allowing four runs in 5.2 innings. Both teams had off yesterday (the Mets have been off since Tuesday), so both bullpens are fresh and rested. We're going to stay away from the full game and focus on the first five innings where all it takes is one of these starting pitchers to struggle.

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