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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(961) Detroit Tigers at (962) Cleveland Guardians

Event:
(961) Detroit Tigers at (962) Cleveland Guardians
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 8, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-129
Play:
4% – Cleveland Guardians -129 R Olson (RHP), T Bibee (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

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DWAYNE'S RESULTS:

  • #2 Overall ROI (13.5%), #2 Profit (+177.96 units), #3 Win Percentage (58.7%) since 9/18/23
  • 16-4 (80%) on his last 20 MLB plays (+39.74 units and a 54.4% ROI)
  • #1 in Basketball Profit (+125.5 units), #1 in Win Percentage (59.3%) & #1 in ROI (14%) this season (NBA + CBB combined)

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  • #2 Overall ROI (13.5%), #2 Profit (+177.96 units), #3 Win Percentage (58.7%) since 9/18/23
  • 16-4 (80%) on his last 20 MLB plays (+39.74 units and a 54.4% ROI)
  • #1 in Basketball Profit (+125.5 units), #1 in Win Percentage (59.3%) & #1 in ROI (14%) this season (NBA + CBB combined)

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1:10 PM ET -- MLB 

961 Detroit Tigers  
962 Cleveland Guardians

Play: 962 CLEVELAND -129

List Pitchers: Olson & Bibee

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at -135 or better 
3% play at -136 to -145
2% play at -146 to -150

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Despite an average line of just -112.6, CLEVELAND is 8-1 this season when coming off a loss in the same series.

CLEVELAND is 4-0 as a home favorite in day games this season.

Tanner Bibee is 6-0 (Team's Record) going back to last season when he faces a team with a winning record and he is not an underdog of +120 or more.

DETROIT is 4-17 going back to last season when the total is less than 9 and they're facing an AL opponent that is averaging at least 4.9 runs per game.

OTHER THOUGHTS:

Olson has clearly been the better pitcher this season.  His numbers are much better than Bibee's.  But the Tigers are just 1-5 in Olson's starts, while Cleveland is 6-1 in Bibee's starts.  Why?  Run support.  Detroit has averaged just 2.17 runs in Olson's six starts (Average line: Detroit +108.8), including a 1-run average over his last four outings.   Cleveland is averaging 6.14 runs in Bibee's seven starts (Average line: Cleveland -136.1).

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