I'm expecting Rea's numbers to regress as his ERA vs. XERA is much different, a true sign that he's about to fall off. Rea has given up at least four hits in five straight games and at least five in four of his last five. Rea's last two quality starts came against the Rays and Cardinals, two offences I do not trust to expose any pitchers right now, but the Royals are a sneaky team that can put runs on the board when given the right match-up. 

During the season, the Royals are 5-0 as home favorites against right-handed pitchers, and in the first five innings, they are 14-8-8 against RHP. It's essential to recognize if a pitcher is performing well or if they're just doing well in favorable match-ups, and that's precisely the case here. 

This is an excellent price to play over 4.5 runs for the Royals.