3% Take Denver – Minnesota UNDER (#553-554)

Game 1 saw 24 made three pointers between these two teams, 78% free throw shooting combined and 52.4% shooting from two point range.  Despite those rock solid offensive efficiency numbers, Game 1 stayed well Under the total. Minnesota was an elite defensive team all season – the single best defensive metrics in the NBA.  They’ve been every bit as good here in the postseason, holding Phoenix and Denver to an average of 102 points per game.  With Jamal Murray ailing, it’s not like Denver is primed to push pace tonight.  Instead, all the key Mike Malone quotes following Game 1 have focused on defense. 

“Naz Reid got going. Karl-Anthony Towns got going. Mike Conley got going — where Anthony Edwards carried the day in that first half. But the second half I just felt not nearly enough discipline and physicality (defensively) and they were able to get whatever they wanted.”  Nikola Jokic agreed: “We need to do a better job of making them make tough shots, maybe make the extra pass.”  Expect defensive intensity to be on display from BOTH sides tonight, setting the stage for a relatively low scoring affair.  Take the Nuggets – Twolves UNDER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 205.5 or higher, 2% at 205 or lower