2% Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5) over Denver Nuggets — 

Not going where the money is going here so far on this one. I am sticking with the underdog in game 2 of this series, not sure if they can pull B2B upsets, but I think they can keep it within 5. Minnesota is 5-0 SUATS so far in the postseason while Denver has covered the spread just twice in their 6 games. 

Minnesota has the H2H edge in recent seasons, they have the edge against divisional opponents and they have the site split with a better ATS record on the road (25-17) than Denver had at home this year (23-21). 

Denver really struggled in the 1st series against the Lakers, and those struggles continued in game 1 of round 2. The Nuggets have allowed the Lakers and Timberwolves to shoot over 52% in 2 of the L3 games overall, yet their offense hasn’t shot 49% or better in a postseason game yet. 

Until I see this Denver offense step it up, I am taking the points with the Timberwolves.