Take the LA Dodgers (#906) (action)

When the bottom of the Dodgers lineup is hitting (like they are now), this is as potent a lineup as you’ll find in baseball.  LA is surging RIGHT NOW: 10-2 in their last dozen ballgames; pounding out eight runs or more in half of those contests.  They’re 4-1 in James Paxton’s five previous starts this season; their key bullpen arms are rested after yesterday’s easy blowout victory.  Yes, Max Fried shut down this lineup last year, but he’s coming off a season high pitch count game where he didn’t allow a hit; primed for regression today.  And let’s not forget that the Braves had homefield advantage in the playoffs with the best record in the league last year – these are VERY meaningful May games for the home underdog.  Atlanta’s bats are cold – seven straight games scoring five runs or less, while going 2-5 in that span.  Bottom line: LA has no business as a home dog in this price range; a betting market overreaction that we can take advantage of!  ‘Action’ wager here – if Fried gets scratched for any reason, we’ll be getting the best of the number by a fairly wide margin.  Take the Dodgers.

Line Parameter: 2% at +130 or higher, 1.5% at +129 or lower