3% Milwaukee Brewers (-118) over Chi. Cubs — MIL w/ Peralta — 

Even though Javier Assad isn’t a listed pitcher for me, he doesn’t hurt the situation here. You aren’t going to scratch a pitcher for a better SP, so it isn’t going to get any better than Assad. While his ERA has been impressive (1.97) in 6 starts, the Cubs haven’t given him the support he has needed and the team is just 3-3 in his 6 starts!

As for Freddy Peralta, he has still put up impressive numbers this year with a 2.78 ERA on the road, and the biggest kicker is the fact that the Brewers are 6-0 in his starts! Not to mention his impressive history against the Cubs. 

Not only is Milwaukee one of the best teams in the MLB this year closing out a series (7-3 in the LGS), but they have been impressive in some other more basic trends: 

• 12-4 during the DAY … 
  • Putting up over 5.5 runs/game … 
  • Winning by 1.5 runs on avg. 
• 13-5 on the ROAD … 
  • Putting up over 5.5 runs/game 
  • Winning by 2 runs on avg. 

Plus, Milwaukee has the DEFINITIVE bullpen advantage in this one!