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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(915) Texas Rangers at (916) Kansas City Royals

Event:
(915) Texas Rangers at (916) Kansas City Royals
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 3, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-103
Play:
3% – (915) Texas Rangers at (916) Kansas City Royals Total Over 9.0 (-103) M Lorenzen (RHP), B Singer (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Brady Singer's trading card numbers look very good: 2-1 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP through six starts. But a deeper look under the hood suggests that regression in on the horizon. Entering Friday, his expected ERA (4.32) is nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA. His expected weighted on-base average (.331) is significantly higher than his actual weighted on-base average (.279). His 9.4-percent walk rate is the highest of his five-year career. So why has Singer been so good? Four of his six starts have come against teams in the bottom-third of baseball against right-hand pitching. He's faced the White Sox twice, who have a .282 on-base percentage against right-hand pitching (worst in baseball). Texas is top-8 in the league in batting average, on-base percentage and wRC+ against righties. It's a small sample size, but the Rangers' current roster is hitting .281 in 38 plate appearances against Singer with a .375 weighted on-base average. Adolis Garcia is 2-for-5 with a triple. Marcus Semien is 3-for-6. Leody Tavares is 2-for-3 with a double and a triple. When we get to the second half of this game, Kansas City's bullpen is No. 28 in xFIP and No. 28 in strikeout rate.

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