Reds (6:10PM ET MASN, BSOH, MLB.TV) – Can’t seem to get on the right side of a one run game in KBO but MLB picks up the slack on Thursday with the Giants and Astros both getting the job done.  Back to back winners put us back ahead ever so slightly in MLB for the season and I’ll look to push further into the green on Friday night when the Cincinnati Reds kick off a three game set with the Baltimore Orioles at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.   

Interesting wrinkle here in the schedule for Cincinnati, the Reds were off yesterday and have another off day on Monday so it’s going to allow the Reds to go all out on bullpen arms knowing they could use Nick Martinez in a long relief role on Sunday if they need to.  Baltimore doesn’t really have that luxury, the Orioles are down their closer with Craig Kimbrel battling injury and used every high leverage arm multiple times in a four game series with the Yankees that ended yesterday so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is where this Orioles relief unit finally cracks.  If the Orioles end up trailing in this game they will absolutely turn to their “B” relief guys and that’s a real possibility with Cole Irvin opposing Hunter Greene here.  I just don’t buy Irvin maintaining an ERA in the mid 3’s and a WHIP of 1.24 and just 18 strikeouts in 28.1 innings tells me some of his current scoreless innings streak has some luck associated with it.  I think this is the spot to fade both of those things (Irvin and the Orioles bullpen) as we get a capable Reds lineup in a very hitter friendly Great American Ball Park.  Baltimore allowed just six runs in the ENTIRE four game series with the Yankees and I think that starts to even out some here. 

Even if Irvin is good here he’s going to have to outpitch Hunter Greene who I have as the better of the two starting pitchers here.  Greene is off to an equally strong start and he has the ceiling of a guy that could maintain this pace for an entire season.  Greene was a former 2nd overall draft pick, he’s worked through some injuries but it looks like 2024 might be the year Greene breaks out as a legitimate ace.  Greene has six or more strikeouts in all six starts so far and has greatly improved command on his fastball.  Greene has one of the top fastball velos among starters in MLB and has been able to avoid throwing it out over the plate.  Greene was throwing his 4 seamer just as hard last season but this year has been able to hit the corners and it’s made it near impossible for opponents to drive the ball against him.  Amazingly, this group of young stud hitters for Baltimore have struggled with hard throwers as they are one of the worst teams in baseball hitting pitches over 95 mph.  That’s the majority of what they will see from Reds pitchers tonight so it feels like the spot where the Baltimore offense cools off a bit.  

The Reds home/road hitting splits have been drastic for years and profile as a team that’s far better to back at home.  I like Greene, I’m fine with playing against Irvin and the Reds were (incorrectly in my opinion) an underdog when I locked this in at WagerTalk this morning so this one checks all the boxes for a best bet.  Play on Reds +101 for 4% (or 4 units)