5% Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma City on the MONEYLINE (#543)

My clients and I have made good money betting against the Pelicans at home down the stretch, including a 5% Big Ticket cash when they lost on this floor to the Lakers last week. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up.  Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current results:

“Homecourt edge? In the last month, the Pelicans have lost by 21 to the Cavs (-5.5), by 7 to the Thunder (pk), by 12 to Boston (+6), by 13 to Phoenix (-1.5), by nine to Orlando (-4.5), and by 2 to San Antonio (-11.5). They’ve lost six of their last seven home games SU and ATS, only beating Sacramento in the second Play-In game; not a confident team on this floor right now.”

New Orleans lost at home in the play-in game last year to OKC as 5.5-point favorites, another major negative still lingering over their heads.   After containing OKC but still coming up short in Game 1, the Pelicans got bombed in Game 2; a non-competitive 32 point defeat.  They’re playing without their superstar, Zion Williamson, and teams playing without their superstars in the postseason tend to go home sooner, rather than later.

New Orleans other All Star, Brandon Ingram, is just back in the lineup following an extended injury absence. He’s been a non-factor in the first two games (30 points combined on 10-27 shooting, ten boards and six assists), shut down by OKC’s defensive stopper, Lu Dort.  CJ McCollum is not carrying teams to postseason wins at this stage of his career very often; the Pelicans supporting cast has repeatedly shown their limitations down the stretch.

OKC has figured it out, despite their youth.  Head Coach Mark Daigneault: “In the first game, I thought both teams were kind of calibrating. (In Game 2) we had much quicker recognition of the way that they were guarding us, where we wanted to attack, and we got to those things pretty well.”  MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous Alexander: “I think it just goes back to us prioritizing winning… every night, all 15 of us go to bed and want to win the next game, want to win the next day. And we do everything we can to do so.”  OKC is clearly the superior team, primed to take a 3-0 series lead with a ‘W’ on Saturday.  Big Ticket: Take the Thunder on the Moneyline.

Line Parameter: 5% at -125 or lower, 4% at -126 or higher