Joel Embiid OVER 1.5 made threes +110

I have this pegged as a lazy line for this series, and it cashed in Game 1 as Embiid went 2-8 on three-point shots.  I don’t think the books are taking into account some things with this line.  Embiid is averaging 1.4 made threes for the season on 3.6 attempts so I think this is a lazy number they put up just going with the season average.  What I don’t think they’re taking into account is how hurt Embiid is, and how hard it is for him to bang inside, and he’s settling for more outside shots.  Since returning from injury, he’s attempting 5.4 three-pointers, and he’s making 2.6 per game.  Since his return, he’s played 30+ minutes in three games, and he’s gone 3-6, 4-9, 4-7, and 2-8 from three-pointers, and with this being the playoffs I have to believe he’s going to play 30+ minutes.

The Knicks have been good against Centers, but they are second worst in defending the three for the season so I think they’ll give Embiid space on the perimeter, and with him shooting the three well recently, he won’t be shy to fire away from deep.  At plus money, this is a fantastic play and I will play this throughout the series as long as Embiid is playing big minutes.