I have to try again with the Astros.  Clear value on Hunter Brown here.  I also think Reynoldo Lopez is nothing more than a placeholder/innings eater in this Braves rotation yet getting priced like a legitimate option.

The Braves ended up with 6 runs last night but that was a pedestrian offensive performance bolstered by 4 tack on runs in the 9th.  I was surprised the Astros offense never figured out Vines but they also have had very little exposure to him.  Reynaldo Lopez is a veteran that most of these Astros have faced numerous times so I think a better outlook for Astros bats here.

Amazingly Lopez has been Atlanta's best starter, he's given up just 1 run in 12 innings pitched and what makes that even more incredible is his fastball velocity is down significantly from what it was when he was coming out of the bullpen in Chicago.  Lopez has also had the benefit of facing the Mets and White Sox so I think this could be a step back for Lopez against statistically the best lineup he's seen yet this year (and also the first one that has some legitimate familiarity with him).

Hunter Brown can't possibly be this bad, he was run from his most recent start against the Royals after giving up 9 runs in the first inning and acknowledged he was leaving everything out over the plate.  Houston doesn't have the luxury of skipping Brown right now with their injury issues but Brown is young enough where if the Astros didn't feel good about him bouncing back, or thought this was a bigger issue, they would have already sent Brown back down to work on mechanics (and not destroy his confidence).

For that reason I like Brown to bounce back here and (anecdotally) it's a strong angle to come back with a guy that got blown up the way Brown did in his last start.  I also think Brown is focused here knowing if he doesn't pitch well he likely loses his rotation spot when Verlander is ready to come back.

The Astros underlying offensive metrics are fantastic, it's pitching that's holding Houston back right now.  I'm going to “buy low” on Brown here and ask the Astros offense to do their thing.

Play on Astros +107 for 4% (or 4 units)