Astros (8:10PM ET MLB Network) – I feel good enough about where I’m at right now in MLB that I don’t want to leave anything off and there’s no juice here so an even better reason to take one more Monday shot with the Houston Astros as they kick off a three-game set with the Atlanta Braves at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas.

The injuries to pitching in today’s MLB are like nothing we have seen before but it also means this is new to the bookmakers and I think that’s where my edge resides when handicapping MLB.  I watch AAA baseball six days per week (only six because Monday is a league wide off day) I’m personally seeing more of the AAA guys than the elite pitchers in MLB so I think I have an advantage pricing pitchers that have thrown a bunch at AAA but have a small sample at the big league level.  Here we have two of them in Spencer Arrighetti and Darius Vines, both have been thrust into action due to injuries in the respective rotations here and it’s been interesting to listen to other “handicappers” try to break down this game when they clearly haven’t seen either of these guys pitch.  That right there tells me I have an edge over the bookmakers in this game because the analytics aren’t fully grasping this matchup.  What’s amazing is how even this matchup is when you get past the starting pitchers and for that reason I think Houston is WAY undervalued at home here.  So much so that I’m willing to play against a very good Braves team because I think the odds are way skewed in a matchup that favors the Astros. 

I ended up going into detail on the respective starting pitchers in this matchup on WagerTalk First Pitch.  The link to that show is up on my WagerTalk page.

Play on Astros +100 for 4% (or 4 units)