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(575) San Antonio Spurs at (576) Denver Nuggets

Event:
(575) San Antonio Spurs at (576) Denver Nuggets
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
April 2, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – San Antonio Spurs +16.0 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take San Antonio (#575)

We’ve got a ‘flat spot’ home game for Denver here, in between a beatdown of the Cavs on Sunday and their showdown with the Clippers on Thursday.  I’ve got the Nuggets 0-6 ATS following their last six double digit wins dating back to late February, including non-covers vs the likes of Toronto (won by only six) and Portland (won by only three).  The talking heads on TV are hyping the tight race for the #1 seed in the West.  The reigning NBA champs don’t seem overly concerned about winning every game down the stretch – health is head coach Mike Malone’s primary concern.   Joker’s got a bad hip, Jamal Murray has a bum ankle, Aaron Gordon is dealing with a foot injury.  The Nuggets just beat the Spurs in San Antonio by 11 less than three weeks ago and they won the first regular season meeting by 12 on this floor earlier.  This is NOT a max intensity, ‘balls to the wall’ game for a team with much bigger fish to fry.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season RIGHT NOW.  They pulled outright upsets over the Suns, Knicks and Jazz last week, while falling just four points short in a near wire-2-wire spread cover against Golden State in their last game.  The Spurs won their last two road games in SU fashion (at Utah, at Golden State) and in their eight road games since the All Star Break, they’ve lost by this margin only once while hanging tough at Sacramento (twice), at the LA Lakers and at Minnesota.  Yes the Spurs have injury issues too, but this a team that isn’t ‘losing contact’ very often these days, quite capable of hanging within this inflated pointspread. Take the Spurs.

Line Parameter: 3% at +15 or higher, 2% at +14.5 or lower

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