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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(977) New York Yankees at (978) Arizona Diamondbacks

Event:
(977) New York Yankees at (978) Arizona Diamondbacks
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
April 2, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – Arizona Diamondbacks -110 N Cortes (LHP), Z Gallen (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET YES, MLB.TV) – Terrible 24 hours on the bases and now we are playing from behind to start the 2024 baseball season.  That’s frustrating as hell but it’s April 2nd, still a lot of plays to be made this season and I’ll head to the desert to oppose the unbeaten New York Yankees when they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second game of a three game set at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

The Bronx Bombers are off to a phenomenal 5-0 start but I think the Yankees are building to their first loss and it likely comes here.  The Yankees bullpen finally gave up a run yesterday, their ERA is now 0.46 but they have accumulated 19.2 innings already and it’s likely a couple relievers won’t be available tonight.  It’s also unlikely the Yankees bullpen maintains an ERA under 1, Arizona was 0-7 with RISP on Monday but have mostly capitalized on those opportunities this season so I think if this one does come down to needing a late hit the numbers suggest Arizona will get it.  Aaron Judge is hitting just .143, the Yankees have historically been a sub-.500 team when Judge is slumping or not in the lineup so it’s hard to believe the Yankees continue to win games with a lack of production from #99.  I also think it’s unlikely the Yankees get a wipe out start from Nestor Cortes who got knocked around in Houston last week and has struggled on the road throughout his career.  Cortes had a 5.54 ERA on the road last season, that sample is small but in 2022 when Cortes had his good stuff he was 1.95 in the Bronx but over 3.00 on the road.  Arizona has an excellent lineup that simply couldn’t cash in a single chance in last night’s game. The Diamondbacks also found themselves in an early hole, which didn’t help matters, but I don’t think that ends up being the case here and if Arizona does fall behind this is probably the most vulnerable the Yankees bullpen has been all season. 

Another reason I have to be on the Diamondbacks here is it’s insanely rare to get Zac Gallen at -110 on his home field.  What’s even more insane about that is we get Gallen against an opposing pitcher who isn’t elite.  It would be one thing if Gallen had to outpitch Gerritt Cole or another top notch ace but Cortes isn’t that so we are getting Gallen, at home, opposing someone he SHOULD be able to outpitch.  Under these circumstances I would expect to be playing into a bullpen disadvantage but I don’t think that’s the case either since the Yankees have needed their high leverage arms to close out wins.  Gallen was solid on Opening Day, he had a cushion but he still fired five innings of one run ball and shut the Yankees out over six innings at Yankee Stadium last September. Gallen has also owned Juan Soto and that’s relevant because Soto has been the one picking up the slack with Judge slumping out of the gate.  This Diamondbacks bullpen came together last year in a huge way as it was one of the big reasons Arizona made it all the way to the World Series.  Even with Paul Sewald on the IL the Diamondbacks have Kevin Ginkel (arguably their best reliever) and all of the leverage options rested so this should set up nicely for Arizona if Gallen can get the ball to his relief unit with the lead. 

Arizona won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season but I do think the Diamondbacks play at worst .500 baseball and have a team that can compete in the National League.  When fully healthy this Yankees team could contend for a title but with guys like Gerrit Cole, Tommy Kahnle and DJ LeMahieu hurt I think it’s possible the Yanks are a tad overrated by their hot 5-0 start.  I don’t think the Yankees sweep in the desert so I’ll try the Diamondbacks with their ace (Gallen) on the mound here.  Play on Diamondbacks -110 for 4% (or 4 units)

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