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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(224609) Gremio at (224610) The Strongest

Event:
(224609) Gremio at (224610) The Strongest
Sport/League:
SOC
Date/Time:
April 2, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-123
Play:
4% – PARLAY The Strongest ML & Columbus/Tigres Under 3.5 Goals -123
Result:
Win
Analysis

PARLAY: The Strongest ML & Columbus/Tigres Under 3.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -123
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

The Strongest vs Gremio
Copa Libertadores, Tuesday, 8pm ET
We always love to fade teams that go to Bolivia for the simple factor that Bolivia has a high elevation that makes it really hard for visiting teams to be competitive. We did it with Bolivar on quite a few occasions last season, and we will do it again this season. 

The Strongest play at the Estadio Hernando Silas in La Paz, which is at an elevation of a whopping 12,000 feet, and the air up there is so thin that local players might be accustomed to it, but visiting teams always suffer in that altitude. For context, Gremio are coming from the Rio Grande do Sul, that has an elevation of...20 feet. 

The Strongest also played in the Copa Libertadores last season (and finished bottom of their group), but they won 2 of 3 home matches and against VERY good teams like Fluminense and River Plate. Their only home loss came against Peruvian side Sporting Cristal, who are coming from a region that has an elevation of 5,000 feet, so the Peruvians were accustomed to the climate. Literally any other team, especially Brazilian teams, suffer on this altitude. 

Gremio are in-between their matches for the Gaucho Championship, where they played for a goal-less draw on the road against Juventude in the first leg, and have the second leg at home on Saturday, and that's a huge deal for them, so the coach left out a LOT of first-team players in order to keep them fresh. The Strongest can take advantage of the situation.

Take The Strongest ML as the first leg of our parlay

 

Columbus Crew vs Tigres
CONCACAF Champions Cup, Tuesday, 7pm ET

I can't believe Columbus are +100 favourites against one of the strongest Liga MX sides, and they are always very careful, especially in two-legged ties, and even more so when the first leg is on the road. 

Tigres almost never lose on the road in two-legged ties, especially against MLS teams, and such matches rarely ever have many goals. They played for a goal-less draw away at Orlando and a 1-1 draw at Vancouver in this competition so far, a goal-less draw against LAFC in the Campeones Cup last season, and didn't lose any of their three Leagues Cup matches against MLS teams last summer. 

What's also common is the fact that they always keep it tight, with none of those matches going Over 3.5 Goals. Columbus are 7-1 to the Under 3.5 Goals in the season, with their only match that went to the over being their recent 2-2 draw at Nashville, which was an away match against a depleted Nashville team, but other than that, Columbus keep it tight at the start of the season. 

Tigres will grind this one out, hoping for a tight match, even if it is a loss (which I doubt it will be), and then take the second leg at home where they are probably going to win. 

Take the Under 3.5 Goals as the second leg of our parlay

 

PARLAY: The Strongest ML & Columbus/Tigres Under 3.5 Goals (-123 at Draftkings)

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